Gossip Mill Already Grinding For 2007 Election Season

By Amy Gardner
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, August 20, 2006

No better evidence exists that the dog days of summer are upon us than the proliferation of gossip about -- yep, you guessed it -- Loudoun election season 2007.

All nine seats on the county Board of Supervisors come open a mere 14 months from now, and the prognosticators are out in force. Among the more common questions: Will Vice Chairman Bruce E. Tulloch (R-Potomac) challenge Chairman Scott K. York (I) or will he run for his own seat? Will James E. Clem (R-Leesburg) run again? Will Stephen J. Snow (R-Dulles)?

And this favorite, even among Republican bloggers: How many Republicans will lose? That's not such a crazy question in Loudoun, where six Republicans swept into control in 2003 but where the political pendulum tends to swing often.

It's still early, of course. And the predictions run the gamut, so it's hard to know how many to take seriously.

Still, some prevailing sentiments seem worth noting -- particularly that Republicans are in trouble, that Loudoun voters are weary of traffic and taxes and that they blame current supervisors.

Snow is viewed as particularly vulnerable, according to some posters, because of his open support for dense suburban development in Dulles South.

"Snow is history," wrote a poster who calls himself "moderate 5-19" on the Northern Virginia Republican blog tooconservative.com.

Even moderate Supervisor Lori L. Waters (R-Broad Run) faces a difficult election, according to some bloggers.

As a result of her increasing tendency to favor slow-growth policies, Waters is no longer a friendly face within the ranks of the pro-property-rights county GOP committee. She is sure to face a challenge for the nomination, one possibility being School Board member John A. Andrews II, who confirmed last week that he was considering a run for Broad Run supervisor.

But Waters also could succumb in a general election if Democrats and independent voters associate her with developers merely because of the "R" after her name.

"Lori will hopefully make it through two tough races that will surely test her fortitude and grace," wrote poster "sibyl says."

Other tidbits:

· Although Supervisor Sarah R. "Sally" Kurtz (D-Catoctin) doesn't plan to run next year, her mostly rural district is deemed safe for Democrats.

· Most bloggers agree that York would have the advantage in a head-to-head race against Tulloch, whose role in delaying the rural downzoning vote could hurt him with advocates of slow growth.

· Will former state delegate Richard H. "Dick" Black (R) run for office again? If so, bloggers say, he might do more harm than good for Republicans by galvanizing Democrats and independents who find his social conservatism distasteful.

Said a poster known as "Perfect Timing" at tooconservative.com: "This man is no longer electable."

More Information, Please

There's more than a little bit of irony in a Freedom of Information Act request submitted recently by development law firm Reed Smith to state Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Prince William).

Michael A. Banzhaf of Reed Smith, a well-known development lawyer in Leesburg, asked Marshall for all letters and e-mails regarding a recent Virginia Department of Transportation study that concluded that allowing 28,000 new homes in the Dulles South region of eastern Loudoun would cause gridlock.

The VDOT study was hailed by opponents of the Dulles South proposal, but it was roundly criticized by development representatives, who viewed it as a political stunt orchestrated by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) to build support for the tax increases he is seeking to pay for transportation improvements.

In his letter to Marshall, Banzhaf specifically asked for correspondence provided to VDOT by "others," notably the Piedmont Environmental Council, the slow- growth advocacy group.

What Banzhaf didn't say is why he was asking for the information.

Banzhaf's letter says it was written "on behalf of our client, a Virginia Limited Liability Company" -- but that's as far as it goes. So much for openness.