GOP's Financial Edge Shrinks

Sestak is getting support from traditional sources such as labor unions and newer ones such as the "Net roots" -- online activists who are channeling significant sums to antiwar Democrats. He has raised $230,000 online this cycle, including thousands through blogs.

"We really hit a vein," he said.

"At its peak, I think those numbers really signify the enthusiasm of the Democratic donor base," said Amy Walter, who tracks House races for the Cook Political Report.

Democrats need to win 15 seats to regain control of the House for the first time since being evicted from the majority in the 1994 elections.

Walter and other political analysts said achieving strict equality in fundraising is not a necessity for a challenger. The key, they said, is having enough money to get a message out in advertising and to respond to an opponent's message.

Much of the money raised by Republicans in competitive races, Walter said, will probably buy negative ads against challengers. "The Democratic ability to respond to attacks will be critical, and that relates directly to money," she said.

L. Sandy Maisel, a government professor at Colby College in Maine, agreed that in a year when broader trends favor Democrats, a challenger in a competitive district who can stay within shouting distance financially has an advantage, even if he or she is outspent.

"All they have to have is enough money to make their campaign pitch and respond to whatever the Republican opponent has thrown at them," said Maisel, who once ran unsuccessfully for Congress.

GOP challengers are also raising money effectively, their funds sometimes rivaling the totals raised by Democratic incumbents. The problem for Republicans is that only eight Democratic incumbents are in seats considered highly competitive by Cook, meaning they are considered "toss-ups" or may "lean" a certain direction, but no candidate has sufficient advantage to be deemed a "likely" winner.

"There's not many opportunities for Republicans to be taking seats from Democrats," said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan research center affiliated with George Washington University. "There's plenty of races to make up the 15 [that Democrats need]. There's not that many places for Republicans to make the hill steeper."

While Democratic challengers are doing well in the most competitive districts, overall figures for House races make plain that the incumbent financial advantage is hardly on its way to extinction. When all Republican incumbents are figured in, they have raised an average of about eight times what challengers have.

Even in the most intensely contested districts, Republican operatives say their candidates are in good shape to preserve the GOP majority. "If you look at Republican incumbents in competitive races, they are raising more than enough to have the resources they need in October and September," said Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "I think our incumbents are in great financial shape and will continue to raise money until Election Day."

Analysts said one wild card this fall will be non-candidate expenditures. National party committees, so-called 527 independent groups, nonprofit organizations and others will spend millions on advertising and voter mobilization.

The dimensions of the fundraising battle are on display in Florida's 22nd District, in what may be the highest-priced House contest of the fall. Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr., a 13-term incumbent, has raised $3.2 million.

Shaw has faced financially competitive challengers before, but he has become more entrenched in recent election cycles. He had a two-to-one advantage over his challengers in 2002 and 2004.

But his opponent this year, state Sen. Ron Klein, has raised $2.7 million. And Klein's campaign notes that more than a third of Shaw's funds were raised at an $800,000 visit by President Bush in May and an earlier $300,000 visit by Vice President Cheney.

Klein is trying to show he can compete. Two and a half weeks before Election Day, he is to bring in former president Bill Clinton for a fundraiser that the campaign expects could raise $500,000.