Leverage for a Prisoner Swap

Since Shalit was taken outside Gaza, Israel has intensified its hunt for Hamas officials in Palestinian areas. The Israel Defense Forces have captured 35 members of the Palestinian legislature and five other senior members of the Palestinian government.

During the war in Lebanon, Israel also captured about 20 Hezbollah members, according to a senior IDF officer, though he would not say if any of them are ranking. Lebanese officials noted that Israel's raid Saturday was carried out near the base of Sheik Mohammed Yazbek, a senior Hezbollah leader, who many suspect to be the real target of the raid.

Yazid Khader, the editor of Minbar al-Islah, the official Hamas newspaper in Ramallah, said he expected that the captives on both sides would be fodder for deals.

"Although they deny it, through secret negotiations, the Israelis will accept an exchange" for their soldier held in Gaza, he said. "And this will happen in Lebanon. Ultimately, they will sit down at the table and exchange their prisoners."

Such exchanges are not so simple, according to Mark Heller, director of research at the Jaffee Center. Especially with Hezbollah, Israel is reluctant to swap prisoners it held before the recent fighting.

"There's a difference between exchanging someone taken after the Israeli soldiers were taken and giving up people who were being held before. If they were being held before, that looks like we're giving in to straight-out extortion or blackmail," Heller said.

"With Hezbollah, you want to swap military people, rather than exchange soldiers for terrorists," he said. Israel also frequently insists it will not exchange those it holds who have killed Israelis and "have blood on their hands."

The deal that Egypt is attempting to broker reportedly involves the release of about 600 of the estimated 10,000 Palestinians in Israeli custody, and would include provisions for a cessation of violence on both sides and the end of the siege that has virtually cut off the Gaza Strip.

On the Palestinian side, an exchange could be complicated if Hamas officials refuse to take part, according to Ahmad Hezz Shriem, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council who was a prisoner for nearly 22 years.

"All of them will refuse to be part of a swap. They were kidnapped," he said. The legislators insist that as parliamentarians, they should have immunity from Israeli arrest. Their colleagues say they were taken by the Israelis because they are lawmakers.

"Israel just wants to disrupt our democracy. They want to inject chaos in the Palestinian Authority" because it is headed by Hamas, said Khalida Jarrar, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and also a former prisoner.

Mark Regev, a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said Sunday that Hamas members who have been detained by Israel do not deserve immunity.

"If the Palestinian leadership acts like leaders should, like statesmen, they will get the respect they deserve," Regev said on CNN when asked about the arrests. "But they can't act like terrorists, be behind suicide acts, be behind abductions, and get that."

At the Palestinian Education Ministry, Shaer's staff said his detention would seriously complicate efforts to reopen schools for 1.2 million children and 150,000 Palestinian college students.

The teachers have not been paid, but "Dr. Shaer was the one who was talking to the president, to the international community, to the teachers, to try to get the resources and get the school year started," Basri Saleh, an education official, said at the ministry building in Ramallah.

"They have targeted the man who was trying to keep education alive in Palestine," Saleh said. "What will they benefit from that?"