College Football's Butterfly Effect

One Play Can Have Huge Reverberations for Programs Both Nationally and Locally

Southern California clung to a five-point lead last January as the fourth quarter of one of the greatest college football games ever played wound down. It was fourth down, and with the lead, the Trojans were going for it. USC's LenDale White plunged into the Texas line, creating a pile of bodies with a football somewhere underneath. The officials couldn't tell if White had gained the yard and a half he needed for the first down.

In college football, the smallest of margins can have the largest reverberations. Translating a winning plan on a chalkboard into success on the field often hangs on the outcome of such moments.

As USC and Texas players and coaches watched, the chains came out. A referee stretched them, slowly dropping one down marker. If the marker was short of the end of the ball, it meant first down, USC. Season over, dynasty affirmed. If it extended beyond the entire ball, the Longhorns still had on their side hope and, better yet, Vince Young.

The down marker touched the turf, six inches ahead of the football's nose. Six inches.

One magical, Young-engineered drive later, Texas had its first national championship since 1970. Was that the result of thousands of hours of preparation, the transcendence of Young and the will of Texas's defense? Or was it six inches that could have just as easily been on the other side of that marker?

The result of one game, in September or in January, can make a huge difference on how a season is remembered. And the result of that game often comes down to one official's call, one tipped pass, one spot of the ball.

A 6-5 record means a bowl game, joy for fan bases and relative job security for most head coaches. A 5-6 record is unqualified disaster. Just one game -- which could mean one play, which could mean one inch -- can decide so much.

Coaches can find their way onto the hot seat or the catbird seat, seasons can be foiled or made, programs can be destroyed or forged. And in the end, no matter what was drawn up, the difference can be much smaller than the average fan, booster or athletic director would ever expect.

"You just know going in that's the way it is," Virginia Coach Al Groh said. "In terms of how proficient your team is, sometimes there's not a lot of difference in the overall proficiency of your team whether you were 9-3 or 6-6."

Maryland: Three Up, Two Down

Maryland Coach Ralph Friedgen built enormous expectations in his first three seasons, winning at least 10 games every season. Those expectations have collapsed on him the past two seasons, when Maryland finished 5-6 each year without going to a bowl.

The records make it seem like Friedgen turned from an offensive genius into a dope, but a slight tip of the balance would have left an entirely different impression. The past five seasons, Maryland has played close games with North Carolina State, winning the first three 23-19, 24-21 and 26-24, then losing 13-3 and 20-14.

If the results of those five games had been switched, the Terrapins would have won 10 games, nine games, 10 games, then two seasons of 6-5. Expectations never would have escalated to the frenzied point they did, and Maryland would have gone to five straight bowl games. Any talk of Friedgen losing his touch would be dismissed as asinine. The difference came down to a combined 25 points over five games with the same opponent.