Beyond the Cease-Fire

Nice as it sounds, this is not the moment for an Israeli-Arab peace settlement.

THE CEASE-FIRE in Lebanon appears to be gradually strengthening, thanks to belated but welcome commitments of peacekeeping troops by European countries and the manifest reluctance of either Israel or Hezbollah to renew hostilities. Hasan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, is even sounding chastened: On Sunday he told a Lebanese television interviewer that he would "absolutely not" have launched the raid that triggered the war had he known what the result would be. Also regretful is Hamas, which started the fighting in Gaza in June with its own cross-border raid; one of its spokesmen has publicly lamented the resulting "chaos." Behind the scenes, both Islamic movements are trying to strike a face-saving deal to release the Israeli soldiers they still hold hostage.

Can the truce lead to a more fundamental settlement between Israel and its neighbors? Various policymakers and politicians in and outside the region have boldly proclaimed this the moment when what they see as the root cause of the war -- Israel's conflict with the Palestinians -- should be resolved once and for all. In fact, as advocates such as French President Jacques Chirac ought to know, that goal is unachievable in the short run. Trying to bring it about by means of an international conference or other grandiose measures would only distract from the incremental but valuable political gains that could be realized in the war's aftermath.

The war has probably killed the only promising prospect of a step toward Israeli-Palestinian peace, which was Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's plan to unilaterally withdraw Israeli settlements and troops from most of the West Bank. While that wouldn't have resolved the conflict, it would have created space for a Palestinian state and ended Israel's day-to-day intervention in the lives of most Palestinians. Thanks to the cross-border raids and the rocket attacks of Hamas and Hezbollah -- both of which oppose a two-state solution -- many more Israelis now regard the previous unilateral withdrawals from southern Lebanon and Gaza as mistakes. Mr. Olmert has told his cabinet that the West Bank pullout is no longer his priority.

The alternative to unilateralism is Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. But the elected Hamas government appears no closer to accepting the essential precondition -- that it recognize Israel's right to exist -- than it was before the war. A tentative step in that direction, a political pact between moderate Hamas leaders and the secular Fatah movement of President Mahmoud Abbas, was disrupted by the initial raid. Talk of a coalition government in the war's aftermath is, so far, just that.

What Israel and outside parties can do now is take measures to strengthen the secular moderates in Lebanon and in the Palestinian territories who oppose the extremism of Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has often talked about bolstering Mr. Abbas, who still commands most Palestinian security forces, but has done little to do so. Mr. Olmert should at last make an effort to work with the Palestinian president. Lebanon's secular politicians have declared their intention to prevent further conflict along the border; Israel should reach out to those leaders, if only through intermediaries. Western and Arab governments should quickly act on their declared intention to provide aid and training to Lebanon's government and armed forces. None of this will produce a breakthrough toward a Middle East peace. But it could, at best, lay the groundwork for one.