'Macaca Moment' Marks a Shift in Momentum

Allen's position on the war is virtually identical to Bush's -- "We can stand American troops down as the Iraqi military stands up," said Wadhams. And he touts Allen's membership on the Senate's foreign relations committee.

But the Virginia Republican has resisted using some of the harshest rhetoric coming from Bush and Rumsfeld about "cut-and-run" Democrats, whom they accuse of appeasing terrorists like some appeased Nazis in another era.

Asked whether Allen thinks Webb is a "cut-and-run" Democrat, Wadhams said, "I don't know. He's clearly identified himself as a Lamont Democrat."

Changing Suburbs

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Despite the national furor over Iraq, the fate of Allen's future in the Senate may be decided much closer to home, in rapidly growing Northern Virginia.

Allen did well there in 2000, handily beating incumbent Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) in Loudoun County by 15 percentage points and winning 36 of the county's 38 precincts. His win was consistent with a recent GOP strategy that counted on big victories in the region's outer suburbs.

But Loudoun has grown and developed since then, adding 82,000 people and thousands of homes. In 2005, Democrat Timothy M. Kaine stunned the GOP by grabbing the county, winning Loudoun by 6 percentage points and capturing 45 of the county's 56 precincts in his gubernatorial bid.

"A lot of the suburban communities that had been for a long time so reliably Republican are really open to the right kind of message," Kaine said. "Some of the conventional wisdom about the electorate is beginning to change. I don't see those trends reversing. I see those accelerating."

Webb said he's counting on winning the votes of the "new faces, new blood in that region who are receptive to the values of the Democratic Party."

But that could still be tough for a Democrat like Webb, who is himself a newcomer to the politics of the region and has little experience with local issues.

Republican Rep. Frank R. Wolf, who has represented Loudoun for more than two decades, said he believes the county is no less conservative now than it has been for many years. Kaine's victory there was a fluke, he said.

"I know Northern Virginia better than Governor Kaine. I know Northern Virginia better than [former governor] Mark Warner," Wolf said recently. "I don't think there's been a change."

Wolf said voters in Northern Virginia want candidates who address their issues: the war in Iraq, transportation and education. "I don't advise anybody," he said. "But I think a candidate running in Northern Virginia ought to talk about . . . how you're going to deal with this transportation issue. People are concerned about safe schools."