Dream On, Kid

Reality Doesn't Meet the Ambitions Of Many Teens

As parents and guidance counselors encourage high school students beginning the new school year to pursue their dreams, a new study suggests that many of them are setting their sights too high.

Researchers at Florida State University (FSU) studied teens' educational and occupational plans between 1976 and 2000 and found a widening gap between what teens believe they will do after graduation and their actual achievements, a problem that the study's authors say can lead to wasted resources, anxiety and distress.

"High school students' plans for what they will achieve are increasingly distant from what's likely," said lead author John Reynolds. The FSU sociology professor said other studies have shown a disconnect between students' goals and their achievements, but this one shows that the gap has grown in the past 30 years.

"This isn't one of those trends you see that follows the state of the economy," Reynolds said. "This seems to be growing steadily."

Reynolds and other researchers analyzed data from several large national surveys, comparing the trend in high school seniors' expectations to the rate at which young adults were actually doing those things. They also looked at national surveys that followed students over time.

The study, supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, appears in the May issue of the journal Social Problems.

Reality Checks

Among other things, the researchers found that over the past 25 years, seniors' educational expectations have become less predictive of how much schooling they would complete after high school. Seniors in 2000 were much less realistic about this than they were in 1976.

"We show that the link between good grades and high expectations is getting weaker over time," Reynolds said. More students than ever are expecting to get an advanced degree or work in a professional job, but "grades aren't acting as the signal of academic potential."

The percentage of high school graduates between age 25 and 30 who eventually earn advanced degrees has remained fairly steady since the 1970s. But the gap between those who expected and earned such degrees nearly doubled over the years. In 1976 there was a gap of 22 percentage points between expectations and reality. By 2000 the difference was 41 percentage points.

In every survey, Reynolds said, seniors' ambitions for advanced degrees and professional-level occupations have risen over time. And they have risen more rapidly than students' actual achievements.

In other words, students today are much more ambitious than they were 30 years ago, but barely more accomplished.

Reynolds speculated that these unrealistic plans can lead to anxiety, stress and depression. In addition, he theorized, setting expectations too high may result in a misuse of human potential and economic resources.