Sudan's Offensive Comes at Key Time

Darfur's cities are all controlled by the government, and its forces there have been bolstered by thousands of new troops in recent months, said Lt. Col. Ferdinand Eze, military adviser to the African Union head of mission in Sudan. The government forces also have access to helicopter gunships and a growing number of armed trucks and heavy weapons. Russian-made Antonov planes, meanwhile, are being used for regular bombing raids.

Eze said the government offensive, which began Aug. 29, included the most extensive and coordinated fighting in Darfur in at least the past year. At the same time, the rebels have heavy weapons and an ability to move about the sparse region quickly.

"They are in a position to fight," Eze said, "but what one cannot say is for how long."

The U.S. government has accused the Sudanese government of genocide for its role in backing armed militias that have terrorized villages throughout the region. The International Criminal Court is investigating possible war crimes from the conflict. In the face of such international pressure, Sudanese officials have become increasingly bellicose, refusing to give their consent for a peacekeeping mission to Darfur and threatening to attack U.N. troops deployed there.

The government made clear its intentions in a plan submitted to the U.N. Security Council last month. Under the heading of "Getting control on the security situation and restoration of peace in Darfur," it called for a gradual buildup of 22,500 government troops, 4,000 members of Minawi's former rebel group and 7,050 national police officers. The government previously had relied on so-called Janjaweed militias to combat the Darfur rebels.

A letter from U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to Bashir on Aug. 25 called the plan "a significant departure" from the May peace plan and urged him not to proceed. "There can be no military solution to the conflict in Darfur," Annan wrote in the letter.

Last week's Security Council resolution "invites the consent" of the Sudanese government. U.S. officials have confidently predicted that it would come, but it has not.

On Sunday night, government officials even suggested that the African Union, of which Sudan is a member, should end its mission in Darfur. But by midday Monday, Sudanese officials softened their position, saying African Union officials could stay in Sudan so long as they did not become part of the U.N. peacekeeping effort.

"If the A.U. continues under its previous mandate, they will have no problem," said Jamal Ibrahim, a spokesman for Sudan's Foreign Ministry.

Eric Reeves, a Smith College professor who closely monitors Darfur, said the Sudanese government is working to drain the region of witnesses as it moves into a final battle against the rebels and their civilian supporters.

"No A.U., no humanitarian groups, this is a genocidal black box," said Reeves, speaking from Northampton, Mass. "We're not going to get any observers."