The Rise of the Lincoln Democrats

Rendell argues that in the older industrial states, Republicans are being hurt by the trade issue, and he criticizes the Bush administration for filing many fewer unfair-trade complaints against foreign competitors than did the Clinton administration.

Job losses have made voters especially sensitive to the erosion of America's competitive position in the global economy. Rendell says flatly: "In 10 years, we could wind up being a second-rate economic power if we don't improve our competitiveness."

Rendell -- who is well ahead of Republican Lynn Swann in the polls -- offers remedies that include national health insurance in order to remove the burden of health costs from American businesses. He says his party should also push for education reform and major investments in alternative energy. These suggestions have the potential of being both business-friendly and congenial to liberal Democrats.

And then, Rendell said, there is the strong opposition to the Iraq war in his region, which could complicate the Bush administration's new political offensive targeting Democratic critics of its policies.

By pushing the war to the forefront, the president might well increase turnout among core Republican voters, but at the cost of hurting individual Republican candidates in districts where opposition to the war is particularly strong.

The realignment of the South has been more important than any other factor in the rise of the Republican Party to majority status in Congress. It would be one of history's ironies if that majority were imperiled by the reassertion of the Lincoln states.

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