No Signs of Pro-Immigrant Voter Boom

Immigration-rights demonstrators march to the Arizona state Capitol, April 10, 2006, in Phoenix. These immigration protests that sent hundreds of thousands of people into the nation's streets this spring promised to leave behind a potent political legacy _ a surge of new Hispanic voters. But an Associated Press review of registration figures from major rally cities suggests there has been no surge in registrations, at least not yet.(AP Photo/Matt York, File) (Matt York - AP)

LOS ANGELES -- During the spring protests that brought hundreds of thousands to the streets, Hispanic immigrants chanted a promise and a threat to politicians: "Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote."

So far, however, there is no indication that such a potent political legacy is developing.

An Associated Press review of voter registration figures from Chicago, Denver, Houston, Atlanta and other major urban areas that saw large rallies shows no sign of a historic new voter boom that could sway elections.

Even in Los Angeles, where a 500,000-strong protest in March foreshadowed demonstrations across the United States, an increase in new registrations before the June primary was more trickle than torrent in a county of nearly 4 million voters.

Protest organizers _ principally unions, Hispanic advocacy groups and the Roman Catholic Church _ acknowledge that it has been hard to translate street activism into ballot box clout, though they insist their goal of 1 million new voters by 2008 is reachable.

It's impossible to count exactly how many new registrants were inspired by the new movement because counties typically do not ask race or ethnicity. But while new registrations were higher this year than last _ not surprising since Democrats and Republicans are struggling for control of Congress _ the numbers are well below 2004 and do not indicate the watershed awakening that advocates had envisioned.

"I was anticipating a huge jump in registration _ I didn't see it," said Jess Cervantes, a veteran California political operative whose company analyzes Hispanic voting trends. "When you have an emotional response, it takes time to evolve."

The emotional response was a reaction to federal legislation that would have overhauled current immigration policy, including the criminalization of the estimated 11 million immigrants who are here illegally.

While that legislation is effectively dead this year, immigration remains a campaign issue. And Hispanic voters remain a pivotal voting bloc, especially with their numbers projected to grow significantly in coming decades.

Hispanics have long voted in numbers far below their share of the population, in part because many are under 18 or not U.S. citizens. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center found that while Hispanics accounted for half the nation's population growth between the 2000 and 2004 elections, they represented only one-tenth of the increase in votes cast.

A lack of political experience helps explain why the flow of new registrations has been halting. Some activists acknowledge that their groups have yet to master the nuances of voter registration drives _ a typically face-to-face task more complex than mobilizing a march. Others complain that political parties with the most to gain haven't financed registration efforts.

"Until the money is spent, 'Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote' will always just be a slogan," said Nativo Lopez, president of the California-based Mexican-American Political Association. "A million new registrations would cost about $10 million. Is anybody willing to pay that? I haven't seen it."