His Challenger in the Primary May Be Too Conservative to Win R.I.
By Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 10, 2006
WARWICK, R.I. -- Republican Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee disagrees with his party on the Iraq war, tax cuts and a host of other issues. But national GOP leaders are flooding this tiny state with manpower and money to save the rebel senator, fearing that his loss in a primary could cost Republicans control of the Senate in November.
Party leaders believe that if Chafee loses to Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey in Tuesday's election, they will have little chance of keeping the seat because many see Laffey as too conservative in Democratic Rhode Island to prevail against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.
If Chafee falls, he will be the second sitting senator to lose a primary this year. But unlike Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman in Connecticut, whose defeat is attributed to his outspoken support for the war, Chafee's problems have little to do with where he stands on issues. Rather, they are rooted in his contemplative, consensus-building style, an aberration in the current bitterly partisan climate.
By contrast, Laffey has an assertive, tough personality. He contends that Chafee's independence has made him irrelevant, and that his unpredictable voting patterns suggest a political identity crisis, as if the senator can't make up his mind. Most political observers in Rhode Island gave Laffey the edge as of late last week, but polling has been erratic, and both sides say the outcome is impossible to predict.
GOP leaders are so pessimistic about Laffey's prospects in November that they intend to pull out of the state if Chafee loses.
"It would be a disservice to our other candidates if we didn't," said Dan Ronayne, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is leading the Chafee rescue effort with help from other GOP groups.
Ronayne noted that Rhode Island has elected two Republican senators since the Depression -- Chafee and his father, the late John H. Chafee. "That's why we're so plain-spoken about losing the seat," he said.
Chafee's struggles serve as a warning to other incumbents that voters are dangerously open-minded this year. Chafee may be a Republican in a Democratic state, but he is well in sync with Rhode Island voters. He opposes the war, backs abortion rights and other liberal social causes, and is an ardent environmentalist. But it's Laffey who has struck a chord with voters such as Roger Dupont.
"I don't care about any particular issue. Steve wants to upset the apple cart, which is good," said Dupont, a retiree who lives in a middle-class neighborhood in West Warwick where Laffey was knocking on doors. As the candidate trudged up the street with his wife, Kelly, four of his five children and six campaign workers, Dupont shrugged, saying, "The guy wants to work for it. He comes up and rings my doorbell, it gets my attention."
Only about 11 percent of voters here are registered Republicans, and while the primary is open to a much larger pool of independent voters, turnout is unlikely to be more than 50,000. Still, the two campaigns and their allies are expected to spend $5 million by primary day, saturating the state with television and radio ads, yard signs, fliers, Chafee wristbands, Laffey caps and other paraphernalia.
Laffey's advantage is that his voter base is easier to identify and highly motivated, consisting of Republicans who think Chafee is too liberal and independents who like the 44-year-old mayor's blustery, in-your-face style. His antics at Cranston City Hall have provided fodder for critics and fans alike, but Laffey is widely respected for having saved his home town from fiscal disaster. The GOP's rejection of his candidacy has only bolstered his populist image. It's also kept the spotlight off his conservative views on hot-button issues, including his support for the war and opposition to abortion and embryonic stem cell research.
Chafee, on the other hand, worries that he is trapped between two constituencies. He is too middle-of-the-road to compete against Laffey for conservative support, and now -- given the GOP's blitz on his behalf -- too tethered to the Republican establishment to connect with moderates.
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the NRSC chair, warned in a recent letter to GOP donors that if Chafee loses and Democrats take the seat, conservative judicial nominees may not advance and tax cuts could be in jeopardy. But Chafee is already a roadblock on both fronts. He opposed Samuel A. Alito's nomination to the Supreme Court and voted against the Bush tax cuts.
Chafee worries that the letter, which was widely reported in Rhode Island, casts him as a party pawn and could diminish his chances not only on Tuesday but also in a general election, when he will need a huge independent turnout to fend off Whitehouse.
"It's a high-wire act," Chafee said. "In either direction, you can't go too far."
Nor is Chafee convinced that the Republican outpouring has helped him much with conservatives. Many voters complain about the negative ads. First lady Laura Bush, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and other luminaries have campaigned for Chafee, but the senator said he has seen little evidence that voters care. "I'm surprised the Republican support hasn't resonated more deeply," he said.
The senator's family is a pillar of Rhode Island's patrician ruling class, and his father was a popular governor and senator who died in office in 1999. His son had served as mayor of Warwick and had worked as a blacksmith on the Canadian harness-racing circuit before succeeding him.
After being appointed to complete his father's term, Chafee won a full Senate term in 2000, but it remains unclear whether he has formed the deep connection with voters that helps politicians survive volatile times.
Some Rhode Islanders do seem to have grown impatient with Chafee, unsure that he has the grit to tackle the many complicated problems that the country faces. Mary Beth Tsiokas, a Cranston housewife, stopped the senator on the sidewalk last week to ask about terrorism and the Iraq war.
"What would be your plan long term?" Tsiokas quizzed him. Chafee thought for a moment and began talking about the Cold War and the merits of diplomacy. Tsiokas studied the senator skeptically. "I can't get anyone to say why we should be so involved," she said, adding that she was still undecided on how to vote Tuesday.
Laffey relishes pointed questions and will expound on any subject voters raise. Shahnaz Siddigi, a Pakistani immigrant who lives in West Warwick, greeted Laffey at her door one evening and asked him how the United States should deal with Iran. The response was a long-winded lecture about standing up to dictators, weaning the country off foreign oil and completing the Iraq war. Siddigi listened intently, then announced she disagreed with him on every point.
"But I'm voting for you anyway," she reassured Laffey. "I'm impressed with what you're doing. I like your approach."
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