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Contests May Portend A Political Sea Change
Leadership Positions at Stake in D.C. Primary

By David Nakamura and Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, September 10, 2006

Washington voters have the opportunity to make sweeping changes in District leadership for the first time in a decade, taking the first step toward selecting a new mayor and council chairman and at least three new council members in Tuesday's Democratic primary.

Across the District, residents say the city's fiscal health has improved since Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) was elected in 1998. But many say that they are eager for public officials to tackle social problems such as failing schools, a growing economic gap between rich and poor, and public safety, after a recent spike in crime.

Among the top mayoral candidates, D.C. Council member Adrian M. Fenty (D-Ward 4) appears to be leading longtime council Chairman Linda W. Cropp, according to polls.

Cropp, 58, has stressed that her experience would help her maintain the District's economic growth and provide more revenue for social needs. Fenty, 35, has pledged to focus on improving services for residents and holding city agencies more accountable.

"There are big choices to be made," said Eric H. Holder Jr., a former U.S. deputy attorney general who lives in the city. "What happens the next two or three years will set the course for the District for the next 10 or 15 years."

Although the general election is not until November, the winners of Tuesday's primary are virtually assured of victory in the fall, because registered voters in the District are overwhelmingly Democratic.

Two years ago, voters signaled their unrest by sweeping three longtime council members out of office. One of the new members, Vincent C. Gray (D-Ward 7), is running against Ward 3's Kathy Patterson to lead the council.

The need to woo disaffected voters was clear in a recent Cropp television ad that shows her sitting next to Williams. Although she embraces his fiscal legacy, Cropp says: "Our next mayor must do a better job of reaching out to help people in all neighborhoods."

Mayor

The mayor's race ranks as the longest and by far the most expensive in city history, with the five major candidates who began the race having raised more than $6 million collectively.

In addition to Cropp and Fenty, retired business executive Marie C. Johns, council member Vincent B. Orange Sr. (D-Ward 5) and lobbyist Michael A. Brown are on the ballot, although Brown dropped out last week and endorsed Cropp.

The campaign started politely, with most of the candidates agreeing that schools, affordable housing, government accountability and public safety are key issues. Cropp said that her experience -- 10 years on the school board and 17 on the council -- made her the logical choice to follow Williams. But Fenty fought back, saying he would bring new energy and ideas to old problems.

A Washington Post poll conducted July 13 to 18 showed Fenty leading Cropp by 10 points among likely voters. By mid-August, Cropp was trailing by about 12 points, according to a poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan and Rosner Research for local business interests.

About that time, Cropp began criticizing Fenty in fliers and TV and radio ads, describing his handling of a probate case before he was elected to the council in 2000 as "incompetent," along with mentioning his vote against a bill to deal with the city's crime emergency and his association with a failed charter school.

Fenty lashed back at Cropp for using "negative campaigning." Recent polls suggest that her attacks were not effective.

A telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted Aug. 23 and 24 found Fenty still leading Cropp 40 to 31 percent, with 14 percent undecided. That poll, also conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

In the survey, Johns had 8 percent; Orange, 5 percent; and Brown, 3 percent.

Council Chairman

With Cropp bidding for mayor, Patterson and Gray appear locked in a tight campaign to replace her.

Patterson, a 12-year council veteran, has a reputation as tough and independent in her oversight of the committees on schools and public safety. Gray, in his second year on the council, is a former head of the city's Human Services Department and has positioned himself as a consensus builder.

The July Post poll showed Gray leading Patterson 43 to 38 percent. But in a recent Greenberg poll, Patterson held a lead of 3 to 4 percentage points. Both polls were virtual ties because they were close to their margins of error. All three polls showed a racially divided electorate, with blacks favoring Gray, who is black, and whites preferring Patterson, who is white.

At-Large Council Member

Two-term incumbent Phil Mendelson is facing a stiff challenge from A. Scott Bolden, a K Street lawyer with business connections who has outspent Mendelson by $293,000.

The two met face to face at several forums at which Bolden portrayed Mendelson as an ineffective council member who failed to take charge of the judiciary committee as its chairman. Mendelson, known for advocating affordable housing, continually attacked Bolden's record as the head of the D.C. Chamber of Commerce, which called for regulations against rent control under his tenure.

Ward Council Members

In Ward 1, two-term incumbent Jim Graham appears poised for reelection over developer Chad Williams. Graham, 60, is known for being highly responsive to residents of the ward, the most socioeconomically and racially diverse of the city's eight.

In Ward 3, nine Democrats are competing to replace Patterson, and education has been the top issue. Front-runner Mary Cheh, a George Washington University lawyer, has key endorsements and a growing reputation for being tough like Patterson.

A recent poll conducted by Greenberg showed Cheh with 27 percent of the vote. Shadow Sen. Paul Strauss and Erik Gaull, former special assistant to the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, each had 11 percent. Political consultant Sam Brooks and Advisory Neighborhood Commissioner Robert Gordon each had 10 percent.

In Ward 5, polls show that Harry "Tommy" Thomas Jr. and Frank Wilds are the front-runners in a field of 11 candidates, including several community activists. The two leading candidates sound similar themes on affordable housing, education, economic development and constituent services.

In Ward 6, school board member Tommy Wells has two advantages over fellow candidates Curtis Etherly Jr. and Leo Pinson: the endorsement of incumbent Sharon Ambrose, who is retiring, and $69,182 at his disposal in the campaign's final week.

Wells raised $145,749, which has helped fund several direct-mail fliers that have gone to Democrats throughout the ward. Etherly, a Coca-Cola executive, and Pinson, a management consultant, have collected much less in contributions.

Analysts said Wells will probably receive support from Ambrose supporters in the high-turnout precincts on Capitol Hill, which will make him hard to beat.

Staff writers Elissa Silverman, Nikita Stewart and Yolanda Woodlee contributed to this report.

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