Influx -- or Glut?

In the face of a real estate slump that has left home sellers longing for the good old days, when homes sold within minutes of hitting the market, real estate agents are still flooding into the business.

The number of real estate agents with active licenses now stands at an all-time high in the Washington area. More than 100,000 licensed real estate agents are plying their trade in Maryland, Virginia and the District, almost doubled since 2002. In the past year, an additional 4,000 real estate agents have gotten licensed in Virginia alone. These people are surging into the field even though home sales have fallen by roughly 25 percent, depending on the jurisdiction.

"We've had phenomenal growth in membership," said Lisa Noon, a spokeswoman for the Virginia Association of Realtors.

Even people who love the business are starting to wonder why newbie agents keep trooping in.

"I'm still getting calls from people who are getting licensed, and I think, 'Don't you read?,' " said Constance W. Maffin, chairman of the D.C. Board of Real Estate. "I'm still signing dozens of new applications every month."

But if history repeats itself, there is reason to believe that some agents will drop out soon. For instance, when the real estate business boomed in the mid-1980s, the number of agents in Maryland jumped, rising to 45,342 in 1987 from 33,642 in 1986, up 35 percent in one year, and then rose again in 1989 to 51,997 agents. Agents trailed out of the business during the slump of the mid-1990s, and by 2001, there were 28,856 active agents in the state. Now, however, there are 54,037 agents working in Maryland, an all-time high.

Rachel Valentino, 25, a new agent who recently joined the Friendship Heights Long & Foster office in the District, knows that some people think her timing is a little odd.

"People looked at me like I was crazy," she said. "Most people don't think it is the best time to get in. . . . They said, 'Why real estate? Why now?' "

But Valentino said she decided the "rookie year" is tough in any business, and that she will develop skills now that will allow her to make better money after the market rebounds. She said she finds the real estate business more rewarding than her previous work as an analyst in the investment banking and insurance industries, because she can use her finance and marketing background but also work more closely with people.

Maffin said she understands why people are entering the business -- there's still some good money to be made. "The market's not dead; I just sold $1 million of real estate in the past month," she said.

Even some of the new agents are expecting to see others drop out.

"It will weed out the people who were just in it for the easy money," said Shana Ketron-Haas, who got her real estate license last year but is just entering the business full time now. She has gone to work at Long & Foster's Capitol Hill office, after leaving the wine-sales business. She decided to make the change because of her recent marriage to Danny Haas, an executive with Vineyard Brands, a wine marketing firm. Haas said she decided to switch careers to get more flexibility with her time and to do "something different" from her husband.

But her wine knowledge will serve as a marketing tool, Ketron-Haas said, adding that she intends to turn some open houses into wine-tasting events to stand out from the pack.

She says she is not worried about the downturn. "The wine business, too, has peaks and valleys," she said.