Analysis: Hezbollah, Lebanon at Odds

Two young Lebanese girls walk amongst the rubble of a house that was destroyed following Israeli bombardment during the 34-day long Hezbollah-Israel conflict in the southern village of Marwaheen, Lebanon, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2006. Hezbollah acknowledged targeting civilians in rocket attacks on Israel, but said it fired in response to Israeli attacks _ rejecting an Amnesty International report Thursday that accused the guerrillas of violating international humanitarian law. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos) (Alvaro Barrientos - AP)

That criticism followed protests at last week's warm government welcome for British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Protesters accused him of tacitly backing the Israeli offensive by supporting President Bush's refusal to call for a quick cease-fire.

Hezbollah and Syria feel threatened by the Saniora government, and Damascus wants to engineer a change, said Edmond Saab, executive editor of Lebanon's leading daily, An-Nahar.

"We are seeing a hidden struggle between Syria and the forces in Lebanon which oppose its influence. Hezbollah is trying to bring with it more allies to the Cabinet in order to protect itself," Saab said.

Hezbollah has two ministers in Saniora's Cabinet. It now wants to add Gen. Michael Aoun, a Hezbollah ally. The Christian opposition leader is a harsh critic of the Saniora government that is backed by the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority.

Saniora, a pro-Western Sunni Muslim, came to power after the protests that followed the Feb. 14, 2005, assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in Beirut, an attack that his supporters blamed on Syria and led to the end of the 29-year Syrian military presence in Lebanon two months later. Damascus has denied any role.

But Hezbollah has strong support among the historically disadvantaged Shiite Muslims _ Lebanon's largest religious group. Shiite support for Hezbollah soared after it continued to pound Israel with rockets despite heavy Israeli bombardment. Hezbollah then increased its popularity by jump-starting reconstruction, offering initial cash payments of up to $12,000 for Christian as well as Muslim families who lost their homes.

Yet Saniora's image also has benefited from his success in negotiating a cease-fire, Saab said, and many Lebanese are privately critical of Hezbollah's role in provoking the fight by snatching two of Israel's soldiers, sparking a conflict that killed hundreds.

With presidential elections a year away, the battle for influence is likely to intensify. Under Lebanon's power-sharing constitution, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian and Aoun is likely to run with Hezbollah's support.

"Hezbollah is still extremely popular among the Shiite community. Their power base is intact. There is no way you can disarm Hezbollah _ neither the government, nor anyone else," said Farid al-Khazen, a lawmaker from Aoun's bloc.

If Hezbollah gains the upper hand, this will allow it to put obstacles in the way of the U.N. cease-fire resolution that calls for its eventual disarmament, its opponents say.

"Without the current government, the implementation of the U.N. resolution will be in doubt," anti-Syrian lawmaker Atef Majdalani said.

___

Associated Press writer Henry Meyer is currently on assignment in Beirut and has covered conflicts in Northern Ireland, Chechnya and Afghanistan over the past decade.