Tribunal Dispute Could Ruin GOP Strategy

Bush-McCain Standoff Over Terrorism Trials Overshadows Electoral Battle

Congressional Republicans had carefully orchestrated the finale of the legislative year to be a showdown with Democrats over which party is best equipped to keep the country safe, a handpicked fight on traditional Republican turf.

But the high-stakes standoff between President Bush and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over military tribunals could ruin that legislative strategy, political analysts and strategists say. Instead of fighting Democrats, Republicans find themselves in the middle of an intraparty struggle between an embattled president and two of the most respected figures in their party, McCain and his ally on the issue, former secretary of state Colin L. Powell.

"Purely from a strategic point of view, this is another mess," said Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst and editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "Every time Republicans think they have an issue to unite them and divide the Democrats, the Republicans end up spending most of the time fighting among themselves."

Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio agreed: "If the goal of this process was to show stark differences between Republicans and Democrats, what is being portrayed is stark differences between George Bush and some Republicans. From that standpoint, you aren't hitting the message mark."

When Congress returned from its August recess, GOP leaders understood that they had four weeks to regain political momentum or face the real prospect of losing control of one or both chambers of Congress. Two court decisions seemed to give them an opening: the Supreme Court's ruling that Bush's military tribunals are unconstitutional and a Detroit federal judge's opinion that the National Security Agency's warrantless surveillance program is also illegal.

By codifying the president's military commissions and ratifying what they called his "terrorist surveillance program," Republican leaders had hoped to dare Democrats to vote against programs framed as insurance policies against terrorism.

It has not worked out that way. Three Republican senators -- McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John W. Warner (Va.) and Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) -- have stood in the way of Bush's tribunal plan, saying it violates basic principles of American fairness and would endanger U.S. troops. A rebellion of civil-liberties-oriented Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee has stymied legislation that would allow warrantless wiretapping to continue. At a closed-door pep rally with Republicans on Thursday, Bush received pointed questions on both policy initiatives, according to participants.

"Congress needs to give this the intensity of consideration necessary," said Rep. Daniel E. Lungren (R-Calif.), a supporter of both programs. "We are not going to be led around by the nose."

House Majority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) acknowledged: "It's the legislative process. It's never predictable."

But Boehner and other Republicans remain confident that they are on the right track. Republicans point to recent polls showing a slight uptick in the president's popularity and say that the focus on national security issues is working. A spate of new polling also indicates that the race between Republicans and Democrats for control of Congress has tightened slightly, although Democrats still maintain a lead.

Indeed, Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan congressional analyst, said any day the media is not focused on Iraq is a good day for Republicans. For most voters, he said, the tribunal flap will be seen as politicians fighting with politicians -- "not exactly man bites dog," but a good diversion from troubling war news.

Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) noted that the unfavorable political landscape leaves GOP leaders little choice but to fight it out on defense and terrorism.