A Rapid Age Shift In the Population

County Drafts Plan for Growth in Elderly

The number of seniors living outside nursing homes and other assisted-living facilities in Montgomery County is projected to more than double by 2030.

This formidable statistic, provided by the county planners, along with coaxing from senior advocacy groups, has prompted county officials to start developing a "senior strategic plan" to address the needs of its growing elderly population.

"We realized that we're going to have a huge increase in the number of seniors in the next 10 years," said Scott W. Reilly, the county's assistant chief administrative officer and chairman of the senior strategic plan advisory committee. "We want to make sure we are an elder-friendly community for the people who work here, live here and [to] plan for public expenditures that will try to meet the seniors' needs."

Projections from the Maryland National-Capital Park and Planning Commission show that in 25 years, the number of seniors age 65 and older not living in nursing homes or other facilities in Montgomery County will increase by 103 percent. By 2030, demographers project that seniors will make up 187,000, or 16.5 percent, of the population, up from 10.7 percent today.

Such rapid growth -- four times faster than the rest of the population -- is part of a national trend of baby boomers hitting their golden years. And it marks a shift of large numbers of the elderly into suburbs such as Montgomery County, said Donna L. Wagner, a director of the gerontology program at Towson State University.

"It's the first time a majority of the elderly have lived in the suburbs. Prior to that most of the older people lived in the cities. . . . And now they're growing old," Wagner said.

The county recently contracted with the center to organize focus groups and community forums and to collect data to draft a plan, due in November.

At a recent forum at the Schweinhaut Senior Center in Silver Spring, seniors shared some common concerns about the need for more accessible transportation with better hours and availability, affordable housing and public safety. Seniors also brought up needs general and specific: more social contact, recreational activities, help for the mentally disabled, support for caregivers, larger lettering for street signs, pedestrian safety and more senior centers.

Phyllis Elperin, executive director of the nonprofit Grass Roots Organization for the Well-being of Seniors, said caregiver burnout is an issue that has been coming up a lot lately.

"There's a lot of seniors who want to stay in their own home," Elperin said. This phenomenon, called "aging in place," creates "a real need for support for caregivers, whether it's family members or professionals," she said.

Although statistics show that the majority of seniors in the county are healthy, active and independent, the projected increase in their numbers comes with a proportional increase in the number of them having disabilities, illnesses or special needs.

For instance, the number of people with dementia who live outside nursing homes or protected living facilities is projected to increase by 94 percent. And the number of seniors with physical disabilities will grow by at least 40 percent, according to county planners. There also will be fewer adult children relative to the current population; these are people who will be in the 35-to-44 age bracket, also known as the "sandwich generation." As a result, there will be fewer relatives to take care of elderly parents.

The senior population also will become more racially and ethnically diverse, reflecting the changing demographics of the county. Now, 80 percent of seniors are white non-Hispanics.

With all these changes ahead, "we want to make sure that our services and private sector services are going to be adequate," Reilly said.

As the community discussion begins on developing a plan, senior advocacy groups want to hear how candidates for local and state office would deal with various problems.

The nonprofit seniors group has scheduled a candidate forum on issues related to aging from 8:15 to 10:30 a.m. Oct. 5 at the Holiday Park Senior Center, 3950 Ferrara Dr. in Wheaton. Candidates for county executive are scheduled to appear, and gubernatorial candidates have been invited. The event is free. For information, call 301-765-3325.