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Stocks Broke Tradition in 3rd Quarter
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Analysts are divided as to where the markets go from here. Historically, the fourth quarter is positive. Since World War II, the average gain in the S&P has been 4.3 percent, and the market has lost money in only one of every five years.
"If it has happened in the past, it can happen in the future. A Dow of 14,000 would not be too surprising," said Curtis A. Teberg, who runs a fund of mutual funds that moves money from cash to equities and back based on historical patterns. He didn't do so well the third quarter but remains optimistic about his model. "The four most abused words in the financial sector are 'this time it's different,' " he said.
S&P's Stovall remains cautious, noting that the market took its biggest single-day dive ever in October 1987. "I think the market is getting ahead of itself," he said. "We could still experience a bull market correction. When nobody's looking for it, that's when it is likely to happen."
Movers
General Motors rose 78 cents, to $33.06. Kirk Kerkorian said he was interested in buying up to 12 million more GM shares as he presses for an alliance with Renault and Nissan.
Hewlett-Packard rose 58 cents, to $35.97.
American Greetings fell $2.21, to $22.83.
Indexes
New York Stock Exchange composite index fell 21.03, to 8469.65.
American Stock Exchange index fell 10.06, to 1906.86.
Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks fell 6.97, to 725.59.
Volume
NYSE: 2.28 billion shares, down from 2.36 billion on Thursday. Decliners outnumbered advancers 10 to 7.
Nasdaq: 1.86 billion shares, down from 1.91 billion. Decliners outnumbered advancers 3 to 2.
Commodities
Crude oil for November delivery: $62.91, up 15 cents.
Gold for current delivery: $598.60 a troy ounce, down from $605.00 on Thursday.
