'08 Scrutiny Shines Unkind Light on Allen

Many GOP strategists believed that the combination of Allen's ideology and personality would make him one of the favorites among activist conservatives who play such a significant role in the nomination process. That view was not universally held, however. Some top strategists privately questioned whether Allen had the skills to make the long-distance run required of presidential candidates.

Today, in the wake of the problems Allen has encountered, the doubts have spread far more widely inside the party. More than anything, these strategists say, Allen must turn his reelection campaign around. Success, they say, is the best antidote to the reservations that his recent performance has engendered around the country.

"To use the football metaphors he is so fond of, he needs to quote [Oakland Raiders owner] Al Davis and 'Just win, baby,' " said Tom Rath, the New Hampshire Republican national committeeman who is leaving that position to help prepare Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for a 2008 run.

Allen is trying to go on offense this week, using his vast financial advantage over Webb to flood the airwaves with an ad portraying as disrespectful an article that Webb wrote 27 years ago that criticized women in the Naval Academy and in combat roles. It is an issue that Allen advisers think will appeal especially in Northern Virginia, an area critical to both campaigns.

But those who are familiar with Allen campaigns of the past, such as Virginia Tech's Denton, say things feel different. For one thing, this is the first time that Allen has run statewide for reelection; his 1993 campaign for governor and his 2000 campaign against Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) were the kind of underdog campaigns he prefers. He has always liked to call his supporters "insurgents" and laments that the Iraq war has ruined the word for him.

"I've never seen an Allen campaign like this one, being so much on the defensive," Denton said. "It's like night and day from his previous campaigns."

Recent polls have shown the race to be a dead heat, with Webb still not terribly familiar to voters and Allen's negative ratings increasing. And according to a recent Mason-Dixon poll, a majority of Virginians say Allen should not run for president.

John Weaver, chief strategist for McCain, said it would be naive to suggest that Allen's national aspirations haven't also been damaged by what he has gone through the last few weeks. But, he added, "we've all been around to know that, if he comes back and wins the race after expectations are what they are today, stranger things have happened in politics. Perhaps he could come back. But that's the last thing they need to be thinking about at this time."

The fact that Allen is now tied down in Virginia puts him at a disadvantage to other prospective candidates who are rapidly assembling organizations in early primary and caucus states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

"Allen's got to do two things that are very tough," said a GOP strategist outside Washington who spoke anonymously so he could talk more candidly about the senator's prospects. "Assuming he wins, he's got to get right in on the organizational side into four to eight states, he's got to raise money and he's got to put a team together."

Other strategists said fundraisers might be wary of helping Allen raise the tens of millions of dollars needed to compete for the GOP nomination. Contributors like to be with winners and often are risk-averse. Until Allen gets his Senate campaign on track, those fundraisers may stay on the fence.

In Iowa, assessments about the damage to Allen varied. Steve Scheffler, who heads the Iowa Christian Alliance, said few Iowa activists are paying attention to the Virginia Senate campaign. He said his organization hosted about 850 activists recently. "I don't remember even one person bringing it up." If that is the good news, the bad news is that Allen has no real profile in the state. A Republican strategist aligned with another candidate said, "I don't think he occupied enough space for it to make much difference."

Rath said he thinks Allen will defeat Webb in November.

"Then I think he's got a chance to say, 'I've dealt with this, and move on.' Whether he can or not will be up to not just him but others."