By Robert Barnes and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, October 1, 2006
It was always a tricky proposition for Sen. George Allen to balance his 2006 reelection campaign with his 2008 presidential ambitions, and now the increased scrutiny and criticism that came with his role on the national stage endanger both.
Allen's prominence in the Republican presidential contest is the main reason the controversies that have roiled his effort to win a second term to the Senate have emerged now, after a 23-year political career, according to campaign strategists.
"When people start mentioning you as a possible presidential candidate, everything is looked at," said Robert E. Denton Jr., a political communications professor at Virginia Tech and a close observer of Virginia politics. "This [scrutiny] is a whole different ballgame for Allen, and it's all about '08, not the Senate campaign."
It wasn't that many months ago that Allen was seen by political insiders as already in the top tier of prospective Republican presidential candidates. In April 2005, he finished first in a National Journal magazine survey of insiders asked to predict the 2008 GOP nominee. In May, Allen finished second behind Arizona Sen. John McCain.
But instead of laying the groundwork for a campaign in Des Moines and Charleston, S.C., Allen's renewed attention is on Winchester and Roanoke. His last trip to one of the early primary states was in July.
The tightening Senate race has even led him to showcase potential rival McCain in television ads aimed at veterans and the kinds of independent voters to whom the Arizona Republican appeals and who could be critical in Allen's race with Democrat James Webb.
Campaign manager Dick Wadhams, who was chosen to be Allen's Senate chief of staff specifically for his national political expertise, doesn't want to talk about anything but the present. "I'm concentrating on the Senate race in 2006," he said yesterday.
He said he doesn't know what role Allen's national profile has played in the campaign. "What I will say is the preponderance of scrutiny of Sen. Allen, as opposed to lack of scrutiny of Webb, suggests that one candidate is getting all the scrutiny, and the other is getting away with no scrutiny at all," Wadhams said.
He also said that Allen's leadership of Republican efforts to retain control of the Senate in 2004, when Democrats thought they had a chance for a takeover, "certainly made Sen. Allen a target."
The milestones in a campaign that recently turned on questions of Allen's character -- a New Republic story that mined Allen's longtime affection for the Confederacy, a piece in the Jewish newspaper the Forward that revealed the senator's unacknowledged Jewish heritage, the emergence of long-ago acquaintances who say Allen used racial epithets in the 1970s, a charge Allen vehemently denies -- have all come about, the participants say, because of his presidential ambitions.
Even the campaign-altering event for which Allen has taken responsibility and for which he has apologized -- his use of the word "macaca" to describe a dark-skinned volunteer for Webb's campaign and his "welcome to America and the real world of Virginia" remarks to the young Fairfax County native -- took flight nationally because of his prominence among Republican 2008 contenders.
Allen campaign officials and supporters have accused the national media, especially The Washington Post, of hyping the macaca story. So it was not a pleasant surprise last week when the influential conservative magazine the Weekly Standard illustrated its long story on Allen with a drawing of the senator with a monkey on his back. (Macaca is a genus of monkey.) The piece said Allen's campaign controversies "have almost eliminated him from the field of serious presidential candidates and even jeopardized his Senate seat."
Many GOP strategists believed that the combination of Allen's ideology and personality would make him one of the favorites among activist conservatives who play such a significant role in the nomination process. That view was not universally held, however. Some top strategists privately questioned whether Allen had the skills to make the long-distance run required of presidential candidates.
Today, in the wake of the problems Allen has encountered, the doubts have spread far more widely inside the party. More than anything, these strategists say, Allen must turn his reelection campaign around. Success, they say, is the best antidote to the reservations that his recent performance has engendered around the country.
"To use the football metaphors he is so fond of, he needs to quote [Oakland Raiders owner] Al Davis and 'Just win, baby,' " said Tom Rath, the New Hampshire Republican national committeeman who is leaving that position to help prepare Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for a 2008 run.
Allen is trying to go on offense this week, using his vast financial advantage over Webb to flood the airwaves with an ad portraying as disrespectful an article that Webb wrote 27 years ago that criticized women in the Naval Academy and in combat roles. It is an issue that Allen advisers think will appeal especially in Northern Virginia, an area critical to both campaigns.
But those who are familiar with Allen campaigns of the past, such as Virginia Tech's Denton, say things feel different. For one thing, this is the first time that Allen has run statewide for reelection; his 1993 campaign for governor and his 2000 campaign against Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) were the kind of underdog campaigns he prefers. He has always liked to call his supporters "insurgents" and laments that the Iraq war has ruined the word for him.
"I've never seen an Allen campaign like this one, being so much on the defensive," Denton said. "It's like night and day from his previous campaigns."
Recent polls have shown the race to be a dead heat, with Webb still not terribly familiar to voters and Allen's negative ratings increasing. And according to a recent Mason-Dixon poll, a majority of Virginians say Allen should not run for president.
John Weaver, chief strategist for McCain, said it would be naive to suggest that Allen's national aspirations haven't also been damaged by what he has gone through the last few weeks. But, he added, "we've all been around to know that, if he comes back and wins the race after expectations are what they are today, stranger things have happened in politics. Perhaps he could come back. But that's the last thing they need to be thinking about at this time."
The fact that Allen is now tied down in Virginia puts him at a disadvantage to other prospective candidates who are rapidly assembling organizations in early primary and caucus states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
"Allen's got to do two things that are very tough," said a GOP strategist outside Washington who spoke anonymously so he could talk more candidly about the senator's prospects. "Assuming he wins, he's got to get right in on the organizational side into four to eight states, he's got to raise money and he's got to put a team together."
Other strategists said fundraisers might be wary of helping Allen raise the tens of millions of dollars needed to compete for the GOP nomination. Contributors like to be with winners and often are risk-averse. Until Allen gets his Senate campaign on track, those fundraisers may stay on the fence.
In Iowa, assessments about the damage to Allen varied. Steve Scheffler, who heads the Iowa Christian Alliance, said few Iowa activists are paying attention to the Virginia Senate campaign. He said his organization hosted about 850 activists recently. "I don't remember even one person bringing it up." If that is the good news, the bad news is that Allen has no real profile in the state. A Republican strategist aligned with another candidate said, "I don't think he occupied enough space for it to make much difference."
Rath said he thinks Allen will defeat Webb in November.
"Then I think he's got a chance to say, 'I've dealt with this, and move on.' Whether he can or not will be up to not just him but others."
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