The Elephant in the Florida 22nd: Medicare Prescription Benefit

Don Monroe, 79, who has volunteered for Shaw's campaign, is one of many seniors not affected by the doughnut hole because of limited need for prescription drugs. Monroe said he is eager to see Shaw win reelection and become chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

Shaw, who has served in Congress since 1980, has sought to shift the focus of the campaign to other issues, including national security, terrorism, Social Security and the environment. Last week, he hosted Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne in Florida for a tour of the Everglades. Shaw "is one of the leaders on environmental issues," Kempthorne said in an interview.

Klein also is not focusing on Medicare; he has raised the subject in only one television ad. His main focus is trying to tap into anger at Bush and the Iraq war in a district that sided with Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the Democratic presidential nominee, in 2004. Shaw, Klein keeps telling voters, votes with Bush 90 percent of the time.

"The overall focus by Ron Klein is to make Clay Shaw look like a pawn of the Republican leadership," said Amy Walter, senior editor of Cook Political Report. "If it is Clay Shaw versus Ron Klein, then I think Clay Shaw can win. If it is a referendum on Washington or President Bush, then the advantage goes to Klein."

Klein trails Shaw in campaign fundraising, $2.8 million to $3.4 million, according to an August campaign-finance disclosure.

Bush and Vice President Cheney have visited to help Shaw raise money, and former president Bill Clinton is due at a fundraiser for Klein this month. Walter has classified the race as a tossup -- some polls have shown Shaw in the lead, others Klein -- but said she had seen no indication that the drug program is driving voters.

Some local commentators disagreed. The Medicare drug benefit "is still going to be a very, very, very viable election issue," said Edith Gooden-Thompson, a coordinator of Serving Health Insurance Needs of Elders.

Sitting in the Aging and Disability Resource Center of Broward County, Gooden-Thompson was surrounded by others who worked with seniors and agreed with her assessment. Nancy Ackerman said she had seen people cutting back on food so they could buy prescriptions.

Even so, though, it could be a tossup: "Clay Shaw has been very supportive to senior issues in all the years we have known him," said Edith Lederberg, the center's director, but she added that Klein had, too. "He has been a state senator for many years and is very popular. That is why it is going to be such a tough choice for people to make."

Perhaps playing in Klein's benefit: More seniors are finding themselves in the doughnut hole as the election approaches. The Institute for America's Future, a group calling for the closure of the gap, calculated that, on average, seniors who enrolled in the benefit at the beginning of the year would have fallen into the doughnut hole on Sept. 22.

On that morning, Klein was talking about the doughnut hole with seniors at a doughnut shop, Dandee Donut Factory in Pompano Beach. Jane Shaffer said she has been in the doughnut hole since March, and she and her husband Robert -- a registered Republican -- say they will back Klein.

For the first time, the Voters Coalition, which encourages voter participation, will not endorse Shaw, said Harold Ostrow, 78, former chairman of the group. "It's easy to get into the doughnut hole, but very hard to get out," Ostrow said.

The question is whether there are enough people like Ostrow, Priscak and the Shaffers to swing the vote -- and whether other issues will erode Shaw's longtime base.

Klein is hoping that by closely linking Shaw to Bush, he can overcome the incumbent late in the campaign. Shaw said that Klein's tack is misguided. "He is running against the president and not Clay Shaw," Shaw said. "I represent the 22nd Congressional District of Florida and not the Republican Party."