A Balancing Act in the Upper South

The Local Touch

McCaskill is touring the state's 114 counties in a recreational vehicle. At most stops, she chooses from issues that have been carefully vetted for local appeal. They include improving Medicare and Medicaid, expanding veterans benefits and developing alternative energy sources, such as ethanol and biodiesel -- fuels that are derived from Missouri crops.

Her effort has forced Talent to spend considerable time and money in a part of the state he might otherwise have safely taken for granted. The senator spent one recent Saturday knocking on doors in Springfield and nearby Joplin.

"It's important to me to get around the state, to listen and to ask people personally for their vote," he explained. An Oct. 2 Mason-Dixon poll showed that voters are split between the two candidates, at 43 percent each.

McCaskill and other Democrats are part of the most sustained effort by the party in 12 years to reverse the rout of 1994. Before that year's elections, when Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress, the five upper South states in the 2006 spotlight were represented by 30 Democratic House members and 17 Republicans. The Senate count was seven Republicans and three Democrats.

Today, there are 29 GOP House members and 19 Democrats, and all 10 senators are Republicans.

One state that gives Democrats hope is Arkansas. Before the 2000 election, its congressional delegation was evenly split, with one Democratic and one Republican senator, and two Democratic and two Republican House members. Today, both senators and three out of four House members are Democrats.

Democrats in Disguise?

Rep. Mike Ross, a former state legislator from Texarkana, beat a four-term Republican in 2000 to win his seat, and this year is advising House candidates who are running in the upper South. He believes that the area's lower-income, high-school-educated, mostly white voters are more in sync than they realize with Democratic goals, such as raising the minimum wage and expanding health coverage.

The problem is on the social front. "In conservative to moderate districts, swing voters first want to know where you are on their values," Ross said. "Once they get past that, they will listen to you on everything else."

As a supporter of abortion rights, McCaskill fits into her party's mainstream on the biggest of all lightning rods for cultural conservatives. She responds by mostly not talking about it, and is attempting to define her values more broadly.

At Emily's List, an abortion-rights group that is supporting McCaskill, the candidate's silence is viewed not as a retreat but as shrewd politics. Chris Esposito, an Emily's List political operative who helped Rep. Dennis Moore get elected eight years ago in a GOP-leaning House district in Kansas, said McCaskill should talk about the issues that Missouri voters say they care about -- such as health coverage and national security.

The point, he said, is winning. "It's not exclusive to wedge issues," Esposito said. "It's fundamental to every campaign."

Another approach is the Heath Shuler model. The former Redskins quarterback and local real estate developer is challenging GOP Rep. Charles H. Taylor in Western North Carolina.