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Bellwethers: Key Issues in the Battle for Congress

Key Issue » Democrats in the upper South

Race Republican Leans Democrat
Tenn. Senate Bob Corker   ?   Rep. Harold Ford
Va. Senate Sen. George Allen (i)   ?   Jim Webb
Ky. 4th district Rep. Geoff Davis (i)   ?   Ken Lucas
N.C. 11th district Rep. Charles H. Taylor (i)     » Heath Shuler
Va. 2nd district Rep. Thelma D. Drake (i) «     Phil Kellam
Mo. Senate Sen. James M. Talent (i)   ?   Claire McCaskill

KEY: (i) Incumbent | « Leans Republican | » Leans Democratic | ? Tossup

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A Balancing Act in the Upper South

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Shuler touts his antiabortion stand on the "faith and family values" page of his Web site, where he announces, "I am a pro-life Democrat." But he puts a Democratic spin on his stance: "I also believe that a commitment to life extends beyond the womb and means ensuring that all people have adequate health care, receive a strong education, and be given proper care in their later years."

It's Important to Fit In

For Democrats who grouse that the party is cutting ideological corners, their political leaders have a simple response. "You've got to get candidates who fit culturally and politically," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "They're not running for national office. They're going to represent the people who live in that district."

The region's two other Democratic Senate candidates are Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who is seeking an open seat in Tennessee, and Jim Webb, the challenger to Sen. George Allen (R) in Virginia. Neither is remotely typical. Ford, at 36, is young and black, and stresses his traditional upbringing. Webb, a former Republican, served as secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration.

One of Ford's television ads was shot inside the church his family attends. "I started church the old-fashioned way: I was forced to. And I'm better for it," Ford asserts into the camera. "Here, I learned the difference between right and wrong."

Republicans have responded to these appeals by suggesting that the Democrats are opportunists, saying whatever it takes to win. One ad for Talent lists the senator's conservative positions on immigration and tax cuts, and then rumbles, "And Claire McCaskill? McCaskill called Howard Dean her hero."

Another Republican Party ad points out her Democratic positions on tax cuts and a controversial domestic surveillance program, the female announcer intoning, "Typical McCaskill: She just tells you what you want to hear."

Changes in the Air

The Democratic experiment in Springfield coincides with important shifts that make the city more politically complex. The nearby country-music mecca of Branson has flooded the region with tourists and seasonal residents, and the vast lakes, green forests and slower pace of the Ozarks draw transplants from St. Louis, Kansas City and beyond.

The local state school changed its name from Southwest Missouri State to Missouri State University, in a bid to bolster its prestige. Springfield is also home to the biggest tourist attraction in Missouri: Bass Pro Shops Outdoor World, a hunting and fishing extravaganza that a local resident launched 25 years ago as a display in his father's liquor store.

"Folks are looking at the city in a more granular way," explained Roy Temple, a senior aide to the late Mel Carnahan (D), who was twice elected governor in the 1990s. "There are places in that market where we can do quite well. Those are votes that count just the same."

Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry abandoned Missouri as a lost cause before the 2004 election, but he left behind a campaign operation that included 1,000 volunteers in the Springfield area. Their efforts, plus an increasingly receptive political climate, helped to elect local teacher Sara Lampe as the only local Democratic state legislator.

This year, Democrats recruited Jamie Schoolcraft, a young firefighter from a prominent southern Missouri family, and local music teacher Nancy Hagan to seek state House seats in districts adjacent to Lampe's. Doug Harpool, a former legislator who lost a state Senate race in 1994 by 700 votes, is trying again.

Looking for Converts

These candidates' deep local ties are pulling in voters such as Matt Lyons. His parents were Truman Democrats, but Lyons, 30, has been an ardent Republican since his teenage years, even naming his daughter Reagan. A few months ago, the disillusioned Sunday school teacher walked into Harpool's campaign office to talk about the war, rising education and energy costs, and Medicaid cuts by the GOP-majority legislature that had left poor people uninsured.

Lyons left with a Harpool bumper sticker, which he affixed to his green Saturn coupe. "I have loved politics all my life," said Lyons, an insurance worker. "But ideas are what motivate me. And my confidence in Republican solutions has declined."

The bumper of Lyons's Saturn also features a Talent for U.S. Senate sticker. Lyons is still squeamish about McCaskill over abortion. But other disgruntled Republicans have made the plunge.

"I'm completely fed up with every last one of them," said Bobby Higgins, a retiree and lifelong GOP voter, and now an active Democratic campaign volunteer. His list of grievances includes the war and prescription drug costs. "Republicans don't know anything about working-class survival," Higgins complained.


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