Experts: Kim Shrewdly Rules North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il claps on the balcony as soldiers salute him during a massive military parade, celebrating the foundation of the armed forces in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this April 25, 2002 file photo. North Korea said Monday October 9, 2006, it performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test, claiming it set off a successful underground blast in a "great leap forward" that defied international warnings against the communist regime. (AP Photo/Katsumi Kasahara, FILE) (Katsumi Kasahara - AP)

Then, with the invasion of Iraq looming, North Korea told U.S. officials in October 2002 that it had been developing a secret uranium program in violation of the earlier deal. That backfired, with the U.S. and its allies halting promised oil deliveries.

Kim became increasingly convinced Bush wanted to overthrow him.

The North restarted its nuclear reactor and kicked out international inspectors.

It eventually agreed at international talks in September 2005 to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for aid and security guarantees, although those negotiations have since stalled.

That agreement came just after Washington launched a campaign to sever the North's connections to the international financial system, accusing Pyongyang of complicity in counterfeiting and money laundering.

The U.S. has refused to remove the restrictions, which make it very difficult for Kim to coddle his elites with gifts from abroad _ meaning he faces a potential threat to his rule from those closest to him.

Kim escalated again. He launched missiles in July that harmlessly dropped into waters off its east coast, drawing more international condemnation. Then came this week's announcement of the nuclear test explosion.

For Kim's critics, there is nothing in his ruthless rule, and even before, that shows he can be trusted. Before rising to power, Kim is believed to have masterminded the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner and a 1983 terror bombing in Myanmar that killed 17 South Korean officials.

Bush so far refuses to back down. But unlike Bush, whose term expires early in 2009, Kim has time on his side, and analysts say he has the abilities to stay in power despite his wacky image.

"He's probably going to be in power longer than Bush is," said Peter Beck, head of the Seoul office of the International Crisis Group think tank. "It's hard to imagine how a crazy person could be in power for more than 12 years."