GOP Redirects Funds From Faltering Races

Among those where spending is heaviest are three races in Indiana, where Republican incumbents are running scared. More than $4 million had been spent there as of the beginning of the week. Other races where money has flowed freely include two districts in Connecticut -- another state where Republicans are on the defensive -- and districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, New Mexico, New York and Virginia.

"We're seeing relatively safe House districts with candidates up on the air five weeks out," said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/CMAG. "They would have been on two to three weeks out at the earliest in past elections. . . . No one is safe."

The two committees are closely tracking spending patterns, and at this point in the campaign there is a certain amount of gamesmanship in their public explanations of what the other side is up to.

Democrats noted gleefully that Republicans had spent money on a poll in Indiana's 3rd District, where incumbent Rep. Mark Edward Souder (R) won reelection with 69 percent of the vote in 2004 and Bush carried with 68 percent of the vote. Souder has not been on anyone's endangered list.

NRCC spokesman Carl Forti said the committee polled the district out of precaution because Souder's opponent had invested several hundred thousand dollars in advertising. Forti said the poll showed Souder in no danger.

NRCC officials noted that Democrats scaled back ad buys in Phoenix and Denver and said that meant the opposition is giving up on two House incumbents. Not so, say Democrats, who say the Republicans are misreading their movements.

This jousting will continue into the final days, but what is clear at this point is that Democrats are playing very little defense in the House and the Senate. They are spending money on a small number of seats held by Democrats, most notably Rep. Leonard L. Boswell in Iowa and Melissa L. Bean in Illinois. In the Senate, Democrats worry most about Robert Menendez of New Jersey, whose seat they can ill afford to lose.

Even Republicans in districts dominated by conservative voters are picking up high levels of unease. Colorado's 5th District, for instance, has never elected a Democrat since it was created 34 years ago. But retiring Rep. Joel Hefley (R) has refused to endorse the party's nominee, Doug Lamborn, charging him with having run a "sleazy" campaign, and a new poll by the Denver Post found him tied with Democrat Jay Fawcett with a quarter of the electorate undecided.

Republican officials said the race is not that close but acknowledged that the political environment is more difficult than expected. "Everyone in the country is seeing some disenchantment with Republicans," said Lamborn campaign manager Jon Hotaling.

The DCCC sent word to Fawcett on Wednesday that they will now invest modestly in his race. "It has been a pointed discussion all along about whether we were reading things right out here," Fawcett said. "We thought something was going on. Slowly but surely we have banged away at it, and finally Washington is noticing."

Republicans seem more concerned about one of their Colorado incumbents, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, who appears potentially vulnerable. She required a last-minute lift from GOP officials in Washington in 2004. The NRCC is coming to her aid again against state Rep. Angie Paccione; Democrats this week scaled back plans for advertising in the district, suggesting that Musgrave's standing might be improving.

Republicans are also increasingly nervous about the seat held by Rep. David G. Reichert (R-Wash.). Darcy Burner, a former Microsoft executive, has pounded Reichert for voting with the GOP majority in Washington, hoping to capitalize on widespread frustration there. In a sign of nervousness, the NRCC recently increased its spending on television ads in the district.

Burner wants help from the DCCC. "Anytime you spend millions of dollars communicating with voters, it is going to have an impact," Burner said.

But some races require more money than others to have the same impact. In New Jersey, Stender might fall victim to the cost-benefit analysis of betting on House seats in the very expensive New York media market. With limited funds, the DCCC is likely to roll the dice on seats where television ads are cheap.