White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects

Taylor, an Iowa native and protege of Mehlman's, said the administration recognized long ago that this would be a difficult campaign, coming in the sixth year of a presidency. "History suggests this will be a tough year for us," she said. "But at some point, the weight of our structural advantages makes up ground. And the message is really more important than all of that. When it comes to the war on terror, people have confidence in the policies that are keeping the country safe."

Polling suggests that may be changing -- the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 53 percent of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of terrorism, the lowest number he has ever received on what has been a signature strength. But in every campaign appearance, Bush continues to attack Democrats for being purportedly soft on national security.

The frustration for the White House is that, until two weeks ago, the Bush-Rove plan seemed to be having an impact. The White House used the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks as an opportunity to redefine the Nov. 7 elections around the terrorism issue. A modest uptick in Bush's approval ratings followed, and GOP lawmakers began to feel better about their prospects.

But recent events combined to change the campaign conversation. These include the leak of a classified intelligence document suggesting that the Iraq war was complicating the fight against terrorism, a Bob Woodward book alleging administration deceptions about the war, and -- perhaps most critically -- the Foley scandal, which raised questions about whether the GOP tolerated the abuse of minors to protect one of its own.

Nonetheless, White House officials say the president plans to use the final weeks of the campaign to try to reshape the national agenda and to help as many candidates as he can, starting this week with fundraisers for Sen. George Allen (Va.) and Rep. Don Sherwood (Pa.), who is in trouble after admitting an extramarital affair.

"The president is going to be articulating the big issues and do so in a way that grabs people's attention," Rove said, although he quickly added that he believes many of the races will turn on local issues.

Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, predicted that it will not work: "The bottom line is that people are tired of the president and his policies, and he has been unable to escape it."

He voiced skepticism that Bush is helping Republicans much, despite what he concedes is the president's fundraising prowess. "Most candidates don't want to show up in public with him, and those that do are embarrassed," Schumer said. "If Bush were popular, these races would not be close."

A key focus is Tennessee, central to GOP hopes of holding the Senate, where Republican Bob Corker is locked in an expectedly tight race with Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. (D). Bush has visited there twice, and Republicans anticipate another visit from Bush and the first lady. White House officials have also pushed Corker to go after Ford more aggressively.

Taylor, who with Rove helps determine Bush's political travel, said the president has helped raise money for some of the most endangered GOP House incumbents, such as Reps. Heather A. Wilson (N.M.) and E. Clay Shaw Jr. (Fla.). Some of Bush's focus more recently has been on helping GOP candidates who are in less intensely competitive districts, she said, citing recent presidential stops on behalf of California Reps. John T. Doolittle and Richard W. Pombo. "For Democrats to take back control of the House, they have to go to this outer ring," she said. "One of the things that's important now is to make sure this outer tier is solid and candidates have the resources they need."

Amy Walter, who tracks the House races for the Cook Political Report, views such stops differently. "It speaks to the fact that there are Republican districts that are now in serious jeopardy," she said.