Allen and Webb in Virtual Tie, Post Poll Says

"I just like the way he talks," said John Sullivan, 79, retired from the Navy and living in Loudoun County. "He's very forthright about things and conservative, which I am."

Apart from Northern Virginia, Allen is well thought of throughout the state, the poll shows, and voters say he's doing a good job. And on issues, he has several significant advantages.

Among those who say the U.S. campaign against terrorism is extremely important in their decision, two-thirds favor Allen. By contrast, voters who say the war in Iraq is extremely important split their votes evenly between Allen and Webb, who made his opposition to the war a cornerstone of his campaign. The same is true for those who cite "ethics in government" as a top concern.

Allen has a similar lead among those who consider taxes extremely important -- he has spent a considerable amount of money on advertisements saying that Webb would vote to roll back tax cuts -- and among those who say immigration is extremely important to their decision.

In addition, the poll shows that Allen does not suffer from the gender gap that has afflicted other Republican candidates in the past. In every Virginia election for the past decade, Democratic candidates for governor and Senate have held leads among women. But 49 percent of the women polled say they would vote for Allen, compared with 47 percent for Webb.

Webb is struggling with women more than previous Democrats have. In 2005, Kaine led among likely women voters by nine points in late polls, and former governor Warner had a double-digit lead among women going into Election Day.

A Leap From Unknown

Perhaps the most positive news for Webb in the poll is the tightness of the race, considering that he was largely unknown even in late spring and that Allen spent about $9.5 million on his reelection, compared with Webb's $2 million.

On personal characteristics such as honesty, family values and leadership, Webb scores nearly as highly as Allen, who has been a fixture in Virginia politics for 25 years. More people say Webb would "stand up for issues important to African Americans" than would Allen, and more say Webb is "tolerant of the points of view of all Virginians."

Still, Webb supporters speak more of what he stands for than the man himself. Jeanette Wiltse, 64, a retired consultant from Arlington County, said she thinks Allen has done "all right" and she doesn't know very much about Webb. But she's voting for him.

"First thing is, he's a Democrat," Wiltse said. "I'm absolutely fed up with this administration. I think the war is a large part of it. I think Bush has basically trashed our foreign relations."

But according to the poll, Webb has not been able to persuade enough women like Wiltse to join his cause, even though only 39 percent of women say the war in Iraq was worth fighting.

On the plus side for Webb, he's also splitting the male vote, which traditionally has gone for Republican candidates. Webb has hoped his status as a decorated veteran would help with the large portion of the Virginia population that has served in the military. About 25 percent say Webb's background would make them more likely to vote for him.

The Northern Va. Factor

Webb would win handily if the election took place only in Northern Virginia, claiming 56 percent of the vote there to Allen's 42 percent, the poll shows. But Allen would win easily in the rest of the state, besting Webb by almost 10 points.

"I would prefer to tilt the balance to the Democrats in the Senate and get the war over," said Elizabeth Barclay, 55, a Fairfax County lawyer.

And the differences are particularly striking among men: Webb's 18-point lead among males in Northern Virginia turns into a 12-point deficit in the rest of the state.

The views of Northern Virginians are similar to those of the rest of the nation this political year, according to the poll.

When it comes to the war in Iraq, Northern Virginians say it was not worth fighting by almost a two to one margin -- just as strongly as the rest of the nation. Commonwealth residents outside Northern Virginia are evenly split on whether the war should have been fought.

Polling director Jon Cohen and database editor Dan Keating contributed to this report.