To Predict Losers In a Power Shift, Follow the Money

The loyalties of most PACs -- which are pools of money from individuals that are dispersed by companies, labor unions and interest groups -- aren't predictable. Corporate PACs in particular are notoriously fickle. When ranked for their partisan leanings by the CRP, many company-controlled PACs fall in the category of "fence-sitters" -- neither overwhelmingly Republican nor Democratic in their campaign donations. These include some of America's most prominent corporations such as Citigroup, BellSouth and General Electric.

If such companies do give more to the lawmakers of one party, that party is almost always the one in power or the one that's about to be in power. That's why Democrats this year have been getting a bit more money than usual from some PACs. The latest full set of fundraising numbers don't come out until the end of this week. So far, several of the country's largest PACs, such as those of the National Association of Realtors and United Parcel Service Inc., have given a slightly higher percentage of their dough to Democrats than they did two years ago.

The increase is tiny, but if Democrats win a notable number of additional congressional seats, that advantage will grow and become to some extent self-perpetuating. The cause is simple: Company PACs are political investment vehicles. Like any investors, PAC managers don't want to risk too much.

That's why 80 percent of the money donated by PACs to federal candidates go to people who are already in office. They are, after all, the people who can vote in Congress. What's more, they also usually win reelection -- 90 percent of the time or better. Some PACs are actually prohibited from contributing to non-incumbents for these reasons.

"To maximize their dollars, nearly all PACs -- particularly among business groups -- give the overwhelming proportion of their campaign dollars to incumbents," the CRP's Web site says.

Industries and interests will always have their partisans, and therefore some will do better than others depending on which party rules in Congress. But a lot of corporations are opportunists and not ideologues. They will tilt whichever way improves their chances of winning.

Lobbying the Statehouse

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An increasing number of former members of Congress turn to lobbying for their second careers. Now the Center for Public Integrity says the trend is hitting state capitals as well.

After a six-month study, the nonpartisan research group concluded that more than 1,300 former lawmakers registered to lobby state legislatures last year. Texas and Florida had the most legislators-turned-lobbyists, registering 70 and 60 ex-lawmakers, respectively. Virginia had the smallest number: six.

Just as it is in Washington, the highest-ranking former lawmakers were especially drawn to the lucrative profession. At least 98 former legislators who had been state House speakers, state Senate presidents or presidents protempore worked as lobbyists in 2005.

It's official then: Public service is a steppingstone to private profit.

Jeffrey Birnbaum writes about the intersection of government and business every other Monday. His e-mail address iskstreetconfidential@washpost.com.