Trade Stock in Political Fortunes

Will Fidel Castro resume power before the new year? Can Schwarzenegger terminate his girly-man opponents in the California governor's race? And what are the chances that a dictatorial movie buff in North Korea will finally set off the Big One?

Oops, that last one already happened. But if you're interested in the likelihood of the other two, head over to the Washington Stock Exchange ( http://www.thewsx.com ), where you can use a million "Washington dollars" (free when you sign up) to buy and sell "stocks" in the probability of upcoming political events. The site's creators won't reveal how many people have signed up but say that on its first day last month, more than a million shares were traded.

The site uses the theory of prediction markets -- the higher the "stock price" of an event, the more likely it is to happen -- to try to accurately forecast outcomes. The Iowa Electronic Markets, another political prediction market that started in 1988, claims to be more accurate than the polls 75 percent of the time.

So who's going to win that tight Senate race in Virginia? At press time, WSX gave the edge to Republican incumbent George Allen, who was trading at $62.25, while Democratic challenger James Webb was at $54.98.

WSX isn't all about politics, however: In the we're-all-gonna-die category, the site is selling shares for such cheery topics as "US Attacks Iran by Dec. 31, 2006" and "US Military Attacks North Korea before 2008."

Those behind WSX want participants to see the site as a game to return to again and again. Their reason: The more people who buy, they say, the more accurate the predictions.

"If George Gallup were alive today, I believe he would be using prediction markets rather than randomly calling people on the phone," says WSX founder David Perry, who believes the site will "outperform the accuracy of opinion polls" on Election Day. Hmm, wanna bet?

-- Nick Kolakowski