GOP Aims to Scare Up Big Voter Turnout

A series of polls show that evangelical Christians, a key component of the GOP, are turning against the Republican Congress and are less likely to vote for GOP candidates this time around.

Former House majority leader Richard K. Armey -- one of the key architects of the GOP takeover in 1994 -- agreed that Republicans have ample reason to be concerned about fiscal conservatives sitting the election out. Armey said the GOP's plan to take advantage of low unemployment and a soaring stock market was destroyed by the Foley page scandal.

"The fact of the matter is, right now people are embarrassed by Republicans, and the economic base is still angry" because of high government spending over the past six years, Armey said. Consequently, he predicted, Democrats will take control of the House in three weeks.

Mark McKinnon, who was Bush's chief media adviser in 2000 and 2004, said the campaign may look better in a few weeks if Republicans can refocus the electorate on what a Democratic takeover might mean in terms of policy.

"I think Republicans wish the election were three weeks ago and the Democrats wish it were today," he said. "The fact is, it is three weeks from now. Whatever is going on right now is not the endgame; it's the middle game."

Rove, who believes that Republicans will hold both the House and Senate, said Democrats have failed to capitalize on events because they lack a clear message that presents a compelling alternative to the Republicans. "Generally when you're trying to nationalize something and you're the out party, you have a consistent message," he said. "I'm not sure what that consistent message is on the other side. Is there unanimity on Iraq? I don't think so."

Rove, speaking by telephone while on a campaign swing with the president, discounted polls and other indicators suggesting that Democratic voters are far more energized than Republicans. He said the GOP's get-out-the-vote operation, which proved more effective than the Democrats' in the past two elections, will be as strong or stronger this year.

Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman said that for the past six weeks, a voter mobilization effort in competitive House and Senate districts has produced more contacts than during an equivalent time in 2004.

"Conservatives are cranky but not self-destructive," said GOP adviser Mary Matalin, a former aide to Vice President Cheney. "A thing we could do, have time to do and will do in the remaining time will be to hammer home what a Pelosi-Rangel-Conyers House would really mean." She was referring to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who would become House speaker if Democrats win, and fellow liberals Charles B. Rangel (N.Y.) and John Conyers Jr. (Mich.), who are in line for committee chairmanships.

"That hasn't reached penetration levels yet," Matalin said.