Analysis: U.S. Faces Hard Iraq Options

Masked gunmen stand on a street corner in southern Iraqi town of Amarah, 320 kilometers (200 miles) southeast of Baghdad, in this image taken from TV Friday Oct. 20, 2006. Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia run by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr seized control of the southern Iraqi city of Amarah on Friday after their fighters stormed three main police stations Friday morning, planting explosives that flattened the buildings. (AP Photo/AP Television) (AP)

Tens of thousands of Sunnis and Shiites could be forced from their homes in areas dominated by the rival sect.

Another possibility would be for the United States to announce a phased troop withdrawal. Supporters believe that would encourage the Iraqis to set aside their differences and reach an agreement on sharing power once the Americans depart.

"Many of these Iraqi leaders know what needs to be done and they need the United States to give them the political cover to do it," Mideast expert Kenneth M. Pollack said in an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations.

"But absent that kind of ultimatum from the United States, I don't think that we're going to break that political logjam."

The risk, however, is that such a move would only encourage an even bloodier fight for power among Iraqi factions, including al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein's Baath party.

An al-Qaida-linked group this month declared its own Islamic state in areas around Baghdad with large Sunni populations. Rumors are circulating in Baghdad that Saddam's party plans to unveil a new political program, offering talks with the Americans on ending the war.

But hatred of the Baathists runs deep within the Shiite political leadership, and the specter of a new role for the party could only worsen the rift between Sunnis and Shiites.

To prevent that, some U.S. analysts have suggested the United States should encourage a reconciliation conference, bringing in not only Iraqis but also countries such as Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

To do that, Washington would likely have to turn to the United Nations to avoid allegations that the conference represented a bid by the Americans to impose a settlement in Iraq.

"The United States should seek to `lead' from the sidelines, and work with regional friends and allies," wrote former Pentagon analyst Anthony Cordesman.

He also recommended that the United States seek multibillion dollar multilateral economic and military aid packages that are "clearly conditional on Iraqi political compromise and conciliation."

All that would require the United States to acknowledge a role for countries like Syria and Iran, which the Bush administration has accused of helping terrorism. Earlier this year, the Americans offered low-level talks with the Iranians on the situation in Iraq, which Tehran refused.

The Iranians could try to link cooperation in Iraq with U.S. acceptance of their nuclear program, which Tehran insists is for peaceful purposes. Washington suspects the Iranians want to build a nuclear weapon.

Syria, which the U.S. has accused of facilitating the movement of foreign fighters into Iraq, may also hold out for U.S. pressure for a peace deal with Israel.

Whatever options are pursued, the prospects for a stable, prosperous and democratic Iraq appear guarded.

"Iraq at best will remain messy for years to come, with a weak central government, a divided society and sectarian violence," Richard N. Haass of the Council on Foreign Affairs wrote this month in the Financial Times.

"At worst, it will become a failed state racked by all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors."

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Robert H. Reid is correspondent-at-large for The Associated Press and has reported frequently from Iraq since 2003.