GOP Terror Strategy No Longer Foolproof

President Bush gestures while speaking at a Republican Party fund raiser in Washington, Friday, Oct. 20, 2006. In an interview with the Associated Press, the president acknowledged that "it's tough" in Iraq and said he would consult with American generals to see if a change in tactics is necessary to combat the escalating violence. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak) (Charles Dharapak - AP)

WASHINGTON -- Republicans skillfully parlayed the threat of terrorism into victories in back-to-back elections. The strategy may not be fail-safe this year.

The GOP's upper-hand as the party voters trust more to protect the country has vanished. That's left Democrats maneuvering for the advantage on national security in the campaign homestretch and Republicans seeking to regain footing on what is supposed to be their most salient issue.

"An enemy still plots and plans to attack the American people," President Bush says, warning voters on the campaign trail. "If we were to follow the Democrats' prescriptions and withdraw from Iraq, we would be fulfilling Osama bin Laden's highest aspirations."

With such dire talk that Democrats dismiss as fearmongering, Republicans again are trying to make the case that Democrats would endanger the country if they assumed control of the House and Senate after a dozen years of the GOP in power.

Voters bought the argument in 2002, casting their ballots to keep Republicans in charge of Congress a year after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. In 2004, Bush was re-elected after claiming that Democratic Sen. John Kerry would waver in the face of terrorist threats.

Vice President Dick Cheney even suggested a vote for the Democrat would risk another terrorist attack.

Republicans set out to use a similar game plan this election year.

However, political analysts say the public's overall dissatisfaction with the Republican-controlled Congress and the Bush administration is diluting the once potent argument. The continuing carnage in Iraq and criticism from some Republican lawmakers about the conflict undercut the GOP's strong-on-security message.

"When people sour on an administration, a party, it affects everything," said Stephen Hess, a George Washington University public affairs professor who has worked in several Republican administrations. Also, he said: "If you couple terrorism with Iraq _ like the president has done _ and we're doing terribly in Iraq, it's going to have an affect on the issue of terrorism."

Sure enough, little more than two weeks until the Nov. 7 elections, polls show the GOP no longer has the edge it did in 2004 on the question of who would best keep the country safe.

A recent Associated Press-Ipsos survey showed Republicans and Democrats about even, with 45 percent of likely voters favoring Democrats and 43 percent trusting Republicans.

Two years ago, likely voters trusted Bush more than Kerry, 51-44 percent.