Democrats Strengthen Chances For Senate

Strategists see Missouri as perhaps the purest test of whether Republicans can overcome a strong Democratic headwind this year because there are few state-related factors or scandals affecting the contest. Neither Sen. James M. Talent (R) nor the challenger, state auditor Claire McCaskill (D), has been able to gain a clear advantage, and strategists on both sides anticipate a photo finish.

If Talent loses, "it will be because of the environment," one senior GOP strategist said. "If Corker loses [in Tennessee], you can point to some big strategic mistakes."

Until recently, almost no one on Capitol Hill was talking seriously of a possible Democratic Senate takeover, for several reasons. Open seats generally are easier for the opposition party to win, but this year, just one Republican incumbent, Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), is retiring. Geography is even more challenging. Democrats must win several races in Red America, where through most of Bush's presidency, Republicans have deepened their hold on elective offices, most notably in the South. This year, only two of the seven most vulnerable Republican Senate seats are in states carried by Sen. John F. Kerry in 2004: Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. The others -- Ohio, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia -- were Bush states in 2000 and 2004.

"I don't think it was ever a map for taking back the majority," said one Democratic strategist, who declined to be identified in order to provide candid information about the campaigns. "But the very fact of it is, we get closer to winning the majority every single week."

Republicans depend in particular on the South for their Senate majority. They now hold 18 of the 22 Senate seats in the former Confederate states, a 14-seat advantage in that region alone. Republicans remain entrenched in the Deep South, but their advantages in upper South states are less strong, says Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University and the co-author with his brother Earl Black of a series of books about Southern politics.

"What we see across the Deep South is a lot of Republican strength," he said. "Those upper South states are where Democrats can campaign effectively against Republicans. I wouldn't make them favorites, but if trends break in their favor, they could win both of those seats."

Santorum, seeking a third term, and Burns, trying for a fourth, have been in trouble for months. Chafee, who is such a maverick Republican that he did not support Bush for reelection in 2004, survived a difficult primary, but only with late help from the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He now trails former state attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic and strongly anti-Bush. His biggest hope lies in the unusually large number of undecided voters in a state where the Chafee name is well-regarded, said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

DeWine always expected a tough reelection race because of the sour national mood and scandals in Ohio that have left Gov. Bob Taft (R) with an approval rating barely in double digits and Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) on his way to prison for his involvement in the scandal involving lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Ohio voters appear ready to take out their anger on the party that has controlled state politics since the early 1990s.

But DeWine's race has turned from a toss-up to one favoring his rival, Rep. Sherrod Brown, in a matter of weeks. Recent polls show Brown leading by seven to 14 percentage points. Republicans blame the Mark Foley scandal.

"The Foley thing had a more corrosive effect there than in other places," said one pessimistic GOP strategist. "Voters were softened to scandal."