By BRENDAN FARRINGTON
The Associated Press
Monday, October 23, 2006; 7:10 PM

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Katherine Harris, once a star in the Republican firmament, could turn out to be a two-time loser for the GOP.

Not only is she trailing badly in the polls in her attempt to unseat Sen. Bill Nelson, but the seat she has held in the House for the past four years is suddenly in jeopardy of falling to the Democrats.

"It's a shame for the Republican Party, isn't it," said Jim Hamilton, 45, a Republican who is on the fence about whether to vote for Harris.

Harris' decision to run for the Senate isn't the only case of political ambition complicating GOP efforts to maintain a majority in the House this fall. In all, there are 22 GOP-held open seats on the ballot, and strategists in both parties agree that Democrats lead in races in Arizona, Colorado, Ohio, and Texas as well as the one Harris holds.

In some respects, Florida is the Republicans' problems in microcosm. Rep. Clay Shaw faces a difficult challenge from Ron Klein, but one that party strategists knew months ago they would face. Not so the race for Harris' seat, and doubly not so for the district that Rep. Mark Foley represented until he resigned from Congress on Sept. 29 after being confronted with sexually explicit computer messages he had sent to teenage male pages.

Harris rose to national prominence in 2000, as Florida's secretary of state, the chief elections official in the state whose presidential balloting triggered a fistful of lawsuits. Eventually, the state's electoral votes went to Bush, and with them, the White House.

Harris has trailed Nelson for months, but it was relatively recently, as the overall political environment worsened for Republicans, that it became clear that her House seat might go Democratic.

Now, less than two weeks in advance of the elections, President Bush is slated to attend a rally and fundraiser in the Florida district Tuesday.

The race pits Republican Vern Buchanan, 55, a car dealership owner and businessman, against 60-year-old banker Christine Jennings. In early September, Buchanan emerged from a five-way GOP primary bruised, battered and with 32 percent of the vote.

"He won the primary primarily because he had the most money," said Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political science professor. "But it's looking now that he's not the strongest candidate Republicans could put up in a year when Democrats are making ethics a big issue."

Buchanan, 55, owns a car dealership and several other businesses. His primary opponents constantly questioned his business dealings, citing lawsuits and accusing him of setting up companies in Caribbean countries to avoid paying taxes.

Jennings has continued the onslaught, airing ads that say, "Buchanan has been sued dozens of times, defaulting on loans, failing to pay taxes. That's too corrupt, even for Washington."

In an ethically charged climate, it's the last thing the Republicans need.

"History is the best indicator of the future. If you look at the way we've conducted our business lives, our personal lives, you'll have an idea of how we will conduct ourselves in the future," said Jennings, who lost the Democratic primary two years ago.

Buchanan rejects Jennings' claims.

"I don't want to ever be negative," Buchanan said. "But when you keep getting hit, you've got to be aggressive. We're trying to focus primarily on the issues."

Reflecting GOP nervousness, the Republicans recently spent $42,000 on the race, largely on polls and mailings. Separately, Buchanan has spent $5 million through the end of September, more than half his own money. Jennings has spent $1.2 million on the race.

The sharp attacks have turned off many voters in the southwest Florida district.

Susan McCool, 59, an accounting manager, said she will probably vote for Buchanan only because she doesn't want Democrats to gain control of Congress.

"But it's not because I am sold on him and that's a terrible reason to vote," she said.

Democrats say they have a better shot in the neighboring district of south-central Florida where Foley's name will remain on the ballot.

Initially, national Republicans spoke pessimistically about holding the seat after Foley resigned. Recently, however, the national party has decided to invest $1 million, hoping voters will check Foley's name, with the votes going to Republican Joe Negron.

State GOP leaders tapped Joe Negron, a member of the legislature, to replace Foley. The Democrat is Tim Mahoney, a political newcomer who switched parties last year saying he was fed up with Republicans being divisive and getting little done.

Mahoney's been running for a year, spending more than $1 million, much of it his own. He is suddenly finding more people listening to his message, even far beyond the district that stretches from Palm Beach County on the Atlantic coast to Charlotte County on the Gulf coast.

"Over the past several weeks this campaign has taken on a completely different dimension. It's national, it's in the spotlight of American politics," Mahoney told a crowd of supporters in Port Charlotte. "You're watching a struggle for control of Congress."

When Foley resigned, Mahoney said it was another example of Republicans in Washington violating voters' trust. At a recent event, where he and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark criticized the handling of the Iraq war, Mahoney didn't mention Foley until asked.

Republicans are talking about Foley mostly to ensure voters don't confuse him with Negron.

"To give people a sense of how to vote for a disgraced congressman and in doing so you're supporting a really good man, it's kind of an abstract ask if you think about," said Gov. Jeb Bush. "It's not the easiest thing in the world to do."

Bush has campaigned with Negron, as has Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman. Negron's first campaign commercial features Bush, who immediately discusses the Foley issue.

"We're all angry and upset by what's happened with Mark Foley, but maintaining control of Congress is important, because it's a dangerous world. That's why I want to introduce you to my friend Joe Negron. He's a dedicated husband and a father of three," Bush says in the ad.

Negron shares with Mahoney a feeling that Congress isn't working well right now.

"A lot of members of Congress are out of touch with what's going on in the lives of their constituents," he said. "If you look at the whole system and all the incidents, to me it's indicative of people believing they can do whatever they want and they're finding out they can't."

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Associated Press writer Phil Davis in Tampa contributed to this report.