In Syria, Iraq's Fate Silences Rights Activists

Syrian officials clapped the noted filmmaker in handcuffs and brought him back to Damascus. Security officers screened his latest work frame by frame, demanding his explanation of any shot that suggested untoward symbolism, he said. Reports of his detention on Arabic-language television helped win his quick release.

Amiralay's prominence has helped him cope. Another critic, the once-outspoken writer, said he has opted to watch his words more carefully. And Salam, the publisher and conference organizer, voted with his feet, moving to Canada just after his interview in Damascus.

Before he left, Salam spoke darkly of the prospects for the Middle East. Iraq was in ruins, he said. Lebanon was in peril of civil war. In Syria, Assad would either stay in power or destroy the country first if he was forced out.

In Egypt, Yemen and Libya, strongmen were preparing their sons to succeed them, while the United States and other avowed promoters of democracy in the Middle East looked the other way. "I don't see the situation getting better," Salam said. "Young people are trying to leave Syria -- to Canada, to Europe, to any place."

Internationally, as well, the erosion of U.S. stature over Iraq and Lebanon has put Syria in position to try to improve its regional and world standing without giving in to the reform demands of the United States, diplomats and analysts said.

The United States and the European Union have officially isolated Syria since the February 2005 bombing that killed former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri in Beirut. The United States and others suspected Syrian involvement.

But Spain, Italy and Germany have renewed contacts since the war in Lebanon this summer, calling Syria's help vital to averting further conflict there. Britain, a staunch U.S. ally, continues to observe diplomatic silence with regard to Syria, but even its ambassador, Peter Ford, said in an interview here that the bid to shut out Syria had not accomplished its aims and may no longer be the best move. Former U.S. secretary of state James A. Baker III, co-chairman of a bipartisan panel seeking alternative strategies for Iraq, has suggested he may recommend U.S. talks with both Syria and Iran.

In Damascus, Baath Party legislator Georges Jabbour laughed when asked about the success of the U.S. policy toward Syria. Interviewed by telephone, he pointed to the two-day state visit to Damascus then being undertaken by Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos. A year ago, Spain was still bowing to U.S. pressure to isolate Syria, and the Spanish foreign minister limited a Damascus visit to an unnecessary refueling stop for furtive meetings with Syrian officials, Jabbour said.

Meanwhile, Syria's people remain spectators of their government's maneuvering, free to watch it but not to speak.

They enjoy the small freedoms that their neighbors in dangerous Iraq no longer do -- such as the ability to go out after dark. This month, after breaking the daily Ramadan fast, families chugged in their cars up the steep roads of Mount Cassion to stroll, sip colas and fruit drinks and take in the view of Damascus spread out below.

Seated on a plastic chair on the road with a friend, real estate salesman Mohammed Yousif gestured toward the city. Green lights of mosques glowed among the white lights of a capital fully powered and at peace. Speaking to a foreign journalist, the 42-year-old salesman measured his words carefully, answering questions with the blandness often seen in Iraq before Hussein was toppled.

"We are talking and enjoying ourselves," Yousif said, waving the nozzle of the traditional water pipe he and his friend were using to smoke flavored tobacco. "This is our democracy. This is our freedom."

Special correspondent Naseer Mehdawi contributed to this report.