War Now Works Against GOP

Voter dissatisfaction with Iraq has taken years to build, not least because few Americans fear a draft, unlike the Vietnam era. But the war is intruding on the public conversation.

"Iraq is at the top of the agenda, and it's largely among those people who say they are largely voting Democratic," said Andrew Kohut, the Pew Research Center's president. "It's not the only issue, but it's the one that has most given people a sense of unease about the state of the nation."

Independents, said Kohut, "are going to decide this election."

Recent Washington Post-ABC News polls, including one released this week, found that growing skepticism about the administration's performance since Sept. 11, 2001, has put the two parties at parity on combating terrorism -- formerly a winning Republican issue by a large margin.

Less than two weeks before Election Day, the figures represent a severe challenge to the GOP strategy of painting Democrats as weak on national security. They also help explain the boldness of Democratic candidates in challenging Republicans on the war.

"I'm getting less and less happy with way Bush is handling things," fifth-grade teacher Denise Hall said in Doylestown on a crystalline autumn morning. Iraq is "definitely a factor" as she considers backing Democrats this year after twice voting for Bush. "Things seem to keep getting worse."

Hall said she is troubled not only by the war deaths -- 93 Americans killed this month, the highest total in a year -- but also by what the Bush administration's approach to Iraq tells her about its ability to manage other crises. "My real concern is North Korea," she said. "That scares the heck out of me. Would we go in somewhere else and think we could straighten it out?"

In Connecticut's 5th District, Republican Rep. Nancy L. Johnson volunteers information on pretty much everything except the war. Her campaign Web site lists her positions on 12 "key issues," none of which includes Iraq. She talks of her "social moderation" and discusses her stances on the environment, health care and jobs.

Johnson believes the war echoes especially strongly in her race because of the battle for the Senate seat held by Joseph I. Lieberman, who was defeated by antiwar candidate Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary and is running as an independent. She contends that most candidates, Republican or Democrat, are not far apart in believing the Iraq war is off track.

Nearby, Democrat Diane Farrell is hammering repeatedly at Rep. Christopher Shays (R) for his support of the war. Recent polls show her with a narrow lead over Shays, who has visited Iraq 13 times and contends that victory remains possible.

"Christopher is such an ardent defender of the war and he holds himself out as an expert," Farrell said. "It makes it easier to hit on this issue."

It became clear in late summer that Iraq was working against Republican candidates, despite the well-telegraphed strategy of Bush and presidential adviser Karl Rove to link criticism of the war to weakness on national security. On Aug. 28, Vice President Cheney warned darkly of "self-defeating pessimism," but he found that some critics were solid Republicans.