Lebanon's Aftermath

The border with Israel is quiet, but tension everywhere else is growing.

TWO MONTHS after the end of the Middle East's summer war the good news is that the Israeli-Lebanese border is quiet and looks as if it may remain so for some time. The bad news is that neither the small nor the large factors that triggered the fighting -- the abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hamas and Hezbollah, and Iran's new drive for power in the region -- have been alleviated. Though the European-led peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon may give that shattered region a respite, the danger is growing of a new eruption of fighting between Israel and the Palestinians -- and maybe even between Israel and Syria.

Judging from what Israeli raids have been uncovering in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian militants are eager to imitate what they perceive as Hezbollah's success in standing up to the Israeli army in the villages of southern Lebanon -- and Iran's agents are just as eager to help them. Entering the border zone between Gaza and Egypt last week for the first time in months, Israeli forces found some 15 tunnels that they say were being used to smuggle sophisticated weapons, such as Russian-made Concourse anti-tank missiles, 122-millimeter Grad rockets and more than 15 tons of TNT. Firings of crude Qassam rockets from Gaza at nearby Israeli towns have continued, along with Israeli raids to capture or kill the militants behind them.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who considered himself a winner of the war, is still sounding belligerent, warning publicly of the possibility of war between Israel and Syria. Israel responded this week by carrying out military maneuvers on the Golan Heights. Mr. Assad continues to harbor one of the architects of the war, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal. Mr. Meshal ordered the June raid inside Israel that began the fighting; now, from his perch in Damascus, he torpedoes attempts by Egypt and other Arab governments to broker accords to release the Israeli captive in Gaza and create a more moderate Palestinian government.

The Bush administration's policy for defusing this dangerous situation has amounted mostly to encouraging Egyptian mediation as well as a deal between Israel and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to ease the flow of goods between Gaza and Israel. But Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert resists acting before the Israeli soldier is released; meanwhile, he has bolstered his government by allying with a hard-line nationalist party that opposes most concessions to the Palestinians. Feelers by Syria about peace talks with Israel have been shunned.

It's not hard to predict where this is heading: toward events that will serve to further advance Iran's goal of radicalizing the Middle East. Those who stand to lose the most from that development -- Israel, Egypt and the United States -- are running out of time for their agenda of negotiations and confidence-building.