Poll Puts Maryland Democrats In the Lead

Just as then-Gov. Parris N. Glendening's unpopularity at the end of his tenure hindered Townsend four years ago, Ehrlich seems to suffer from the national political climate. Although 75 percent of the voters said Bush would not be a factor in the governor's race, nearly 20 percent said one reason for their vote for governor would be to express opposition to Bush.

Henry Evans, 60, a postal carrier from Prince George's County, said he has no problem with the way Ehrlich has done his job but is backing O'Malley. "My reason is that Governor Ehrlich has supported the president and what's going on in Iraq," Evans said. "I'm against that."

Factoring In Bush

The issue is more pronounced in the Senate race, where nearly one in three voters in the poll said their opposition to Bush would be a factor.

Nearly six in 10 likely voters said they "strongly" believe the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, far higher than other Americans, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll this month, and 53 percent of Marylanders polled said it would be a good thing if control of Congress switched from Republican to Democrat, as opposed to 21 percent who said it would be a bad thing.

National GOP leaders have invested more than $1 million in Steele's campaign, in part because they view his effort as a critical first step in any broader attempt to break the virtual lock on the African American vote that Democrats have held.

Steele has tried to present himself as a different kind of candidate with his out-of-the-box campaign advertisements, criticisms of both political parties and such high-profile supporters as hip-hop recording mogul Russell Simmons and Cathy L. Hughes, the Radio One founder and chairwoman.

But Democrats have sought to link Steele with Bush -- who has a 6 percent approval rating among African Americans surveyed. Steele has support from 14 percent of black voters, not significantly higher than the support Ehrlich is receiving, the poll shows. Overall, Cardin leads Steele 54 to 43 percent, with independent candidate Kevin Zeese receiving 1 percent of the vote.

"Michael Steele's problem is that . . . he's a Republican at the absolute worst time in the world for a politician to be a Republican," said David Bositis, an expert on black voting patterns at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

Steele's spokesman Heye disagreed: "Michael Steele's message is resonating with African American voters. . . . His message of opportunity, hope and bringing change to Washington has resonated and is continuing to resonate with African American voters."

But Kenneth Kirby, 52, a former airline worker from Annapolis who is black, said he supports Cardin because he's a loyal Democrat. He said he stopped considering Steele "after I learned he was, essentially, a Bush appointee."

Steele gets more than 90 percent of the Republican vote and leads among independents, but, like Ehrlich, he has made little headway among the half of the voters who identify themselves as Democrats. Statewide, 55 percent of voters are registered as Democrats.

Cardin has maintained strong support in spite of projecting a somewhat bland persona during much of the campaign. Likely voters said they consider him the more honest and trustworthy of the two and the one more likely to share their values.