By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 2, 2006; VA23

RICHMOND Let's pretend the election is over and we're trying to figure out what it means:

Virginia's incumbent senator, George Allen , has won reelection to a second term, defeating Democrat James Webb by a less-than-comfortable 2-point margin, while the constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage has won with 55 percent of the vote.

And the state's political world is back to normal.

The result confirms what every political observer had been prepared to say six months ago: that Virginia -- deep down -- is a conservative, Republican-leaning place. It's a red state. Maybe not crimson, but definitely red, and the Nov. 7 election proved it.

Okay, sure. Former governor Mark R. Warner (D) won in 2001, and so did his successor, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), in 2005. But those are state elections, in which voters care about things such as traffic and budget stalemates and school spending. When it comes to the federal government, the state just isn't in the Democratic column.

Just look at the results. In his victory, Allen reclaimed Loudoun and Prince William counties from Kaine and won big in the Richmond suburbs. The GOP incumbent got trounced inside the Beltway, but he won in Hampton Roads, defeating a war hero in one of the nation's largest military communities.

Allen's margins across the state were small because of the controversies he endured -- many of his own making -- throughout one of the nastiest campaigns in state history. But in the end, voters returned to Allen, the popular one who was seen as an effective, principled governor. He was more successful than Webb in swaying female voters.

Iraq hurt Allen, helping drive voters to Webb. But the former Marine never took advantage of his compelling personal story and failed to make clear to voters what, exactly, he wanted to do differently in the Middle East. Webb ended up with more than enough money, but his halting, can't-be-bothered style made him hard for voters to like.

The marriage amendment helped Allen by creating a surge of support in rural areas of the state and widening his already huge lead there. Despite the best efforts of the "no" crowd, the amendment's approval puts to rest the idea that Northern Virginia's social values have seeped below the Rappahannock River.

Webb defeats Allen by a wider-than-expected margin, winning 53 percent of the vote and sending the onetime presidential contender to the locker room. At the same time, the marriage amendment fails in Virginia, a national signal that the anti-gay movement may be fading.

The results are a political earthquake for Virginia, forcing a complete reevaluation of the state's philosophical makeup.

Allen's defeat marks the end of a political realignment he helped create in 1993, when he and his self-described insurgents took over the statehouse from Democrats. That was followed by Republican James S. Gilmore's victory in 1997 and a rapid march to power in the legislature, where the GOP attained a nearly veto-proof majority in the House of Delegates.

Now, with Webb's victory, the dismantling of the Virginia GOP is nearly complete.

Webb, a Navy secretary under President Ronald Reagan, won not only inside the Beltway but also repeated Kaine's trick in Loudoun and Prince William, appealing to middle-of-the-road conservatives who are tired of President Bush 's policies. He also won by a healthy margin in Hampton Roads, where anger over the Iraq war is felt more intensely.

Allen's attacks on Webb's attitudes toward women clearly had their intended effect -- the Democrat's lead among women was in the single digits. But in exit polls, voters expressed anger with Allen over his relentlessly negative campaign in the final two weeks, especially his attacks on explicit passages in Webb's novels.

And surprisingly, the marriage amendment seems to have helped Webb more than it helped Allen. Black voters who went to the polls in droves to support the marriage amendment voted overwhelmingly for Webb. Even so, an overwhelming distaste in Northern Virginia for the amendment's wide reach contributed to its narrow defeat statewide.

There are other scenarios, of course. Allen could win as the same-sex marriage amendment falls to defeat. Webb could win while voters ban same-sex marriage. And the scenario that makes partisans in both parties cringe would leave control of the U.S. Senate in limbo while Virginia Elections Board Secretary Jean Jensen oversees a bitter recount to determine whether a 360-vote lead holds up for Allen or Webb.

It could happen. Just ask Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, who won a recount last year. And if it does, what does that mean for Virginia? We'll figure that out later.