Outcome May Rest On Black Turnout

Alexandria barber Erving Sabb said of James Webb, a former Republican: "I want to know if he's really one of us." (By Gerald Martineau -- The Washington Post)

In between those elections, Republicans Allen and James S. Gilmore III won gubernatorial races in elections when black turnout was less than 14 percent, according to the center's analysis.

Webb probably needs a better turnout than his Democratic predecessors. Many black leaders were initially critical of the former Marine for his position on affirmative action, which has been endorsed by the Democratic party establishment for decades. Webb said he supports affirmative action for blacks but not for other minorities. Otherwise, he thinks preferential job and education programs should be awarded based on economic conditions or not at all.

Webb lost nearly all of the state's majority black communities to Harris N. Miller during the Democratic primary. And although the state's Legislative Black Caucus endorsed Webb in his race against Allen, they did so by a 9 to 8 vote, according to two people who were familiar with the decision.

Webb's effort to woo conservative GOP-leaning voters and independents back into the Democratic column has also clashed with the sensibilities of many black Democrats. His first television commercial, for instance, sought to connect the candidate with Reagan, an unpopular figure among blacks.

After appearing before an audience of black voters in Alexandria last week, Webb acknowledged that he started with an uphill battle reaching out to African Americans.

"The number one thing that I saw is that I worked for Reagan. . . . It was especially hard for the African American leadership," he said, adding that he still believed Reagan was a "very fine" president. "But I've explained my journey on that . . . and it's been a process of us getting to know one another."

In recent weeks, Webb has tried to boost his presence in black communities. Late last month, he visited a dozen black churches in Hampton Roads. In addition, he picked up support from several black newspapers and received the endorsement of Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond. Wilder plans to campaign with Webb today in Richmond, and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will join him on the stump there tomorrow.

Some activists said that Webb's opposition to the Iraq war will help with black voters, overriding other potential concerns. Recent polls have found that blacks are more likely than whites to say that the Iraq war was a mistake.

"I think there's going to be a lot of support for him," said Robert James, a black Democratic activist from Arlington County. "He opposed the war early, and in regards to affirmative action, we're beginning to like what we see."

That view was borne out by those who attended the Alexandria event, where Webb received enthusiastic applause when he talked about raising the minimum wage and his concern about a growing economic divide in America.

"Now that I'm beginning to hear more of his message, I'm beginning to feel more comfortable," said Thad Denney, 52, an insurance agent from Fairfax, who was at the event. "I'll admit it, I only knew him from his days as Navy secretary and didn't know where he stood. I wasn't sure if I was going to vote for him . . . but I'm thinking about it now."

Allen also has tried to mend fences with the black community, appearing at an NAACP dinner earlier this month and signing a lifetime membership to the organization. At the dinner, Allen said that he was not perfect and looked forward "to joining hands" with black voters.