GOP Losing Its Edge in Fairfax

Half the county's 1.1 million residents still live in single-family houses. But its changing face makes Fairfax more like a city at the polls: Democratic, moderate, drawn less to social issues than practical ones. In other words, not Allen's natural constituency.

"The best message for Jim Webb up here is 'change,' " said Steve Jarding, a senior Webb adviser.

For decades, the Capital Beltway cleaved a political dividing line in Northern Virginia, with Democrats generally inside and Republicans outside. Now observers in both parties agree that line has shifted west to Chain Bridge Road (Route 123).

"I'm not sure where the real Republican strongholds are anymore, except for the southern part here," said Supervisor Elaine N. McConnell, a Republican who since 1983 has represented the Springfield District of southern Fairfax, which includes Clifton. "You used to have whole blocks of areas you don't go to if you're the opposite party. Now it's harder to know where your people are."

The Springfield District, which includes Burke, Fairfax Station, Greenbriar and neighborhoods near the county Government Center, is still the toughest area for Democrats to crack. But Barker said of the new women's club in Clifton, "People are coming to us. They're finding us."

To be sure, some pockets of Fairfax have resisted Democratic incursion, a horseshoe from Great Falls west to southern Springfield. Living in the shadow of the federal government in Washington, voters are able to distinguish national from state and local politics, and they tend to split tickets.

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) is a favorite for reelection against Democrat Andrew Hurst. Democrat Judy Feder might come closer to unseating Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R-Va.) -- especially in the Fairfax corner of a district stretching to the Shenandoah Valley -- but the popular incumbent represents a heavily Republican area. The part of Fairfax represented by Rep. James P. Moran (D-Va.) has been reliably Democratic in recent years.

"Right now Fairfax is Democratic given the national paradigm," Davis said. "But these are independent people who, given the right circumstances, are going to vote for the best people."

Fairfax GOP candidates used to turn for support to Centreville, a fast-growing, affordable community of townhouses and strip malls in the Sully District. Now Centreville is less reliable. Down Route 29, the 1,100 townhouses and single-family houses of the FairCrest community replaced older Cape Cods and bungalows.

Chad Crouse, 38, who lives in one of those townhouses, says he is likely to choose Webb. Crouse, a statistician for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, moved to Fairfax in 1997 from Iowa.

Allen's hopes rest with voters such as Brinkley Moore, 24, a Navy brat who builds fiber-optic systems for a federal contractor in Chantilly. "Bush is good on terrorism," Moore said. Being young and new in town though, he's like many voters in Fairfax who aren't familiar with Allen's long history in Virginia politics. Sixteen percent of the county lived in a different residence a year ago, the Census Bureau shows.

Proof that Fairfax is hewing toward the political middle and away from social issues came yesterday as Allen stopped at the offices of TrafficLand, a company off Route 50 that uses an Internet-based network to track traffic movement.

Real-time images were projected onto a video screen as company founder Lawrence Nelson told Allen his technology "is making the roads a lot smarter" even if new roads aren't being built. Allen nodded in agreement.

Speaking to reporters outside, he said, "Our family, like others, is concerned about getting home," before he was whisked into his campaign van, which headed down Waples Mill Road into rush-hour traffic.