Optimism Turns to Anxiety On Curbing Nuclear Arms

North Korea's test has deepened worries of an Asian arms race, with Japan and South Korea among dozens of countries with the technical ability -- known as "breakout" capacity -- to quickly divert materials from their energy programs for bomb-making. Mohamed ElBaradei, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, calls those countries "virtual" weapons states and noted during a recent talk in Washington that those with the know-how, including Japan and South Korea, could make nuclear devices "overnight" if they wanted to.

"When the Japanese, South Koreans and Taiwanese see North Korea go nuclear and nothing done, they will reconsider their decisions not to go nuclear," said Carter, now a Harvard University professor. Noting that Egypt and Saudi Arabia may change their postures too, Carter said the recent turn toward nuclear weapons presented "the biggest setback to American security in a decade. It doesn't get any bigger than this."

Jon Wolfsthal, a fellow at the International Security Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that in the 1990s, "the pessimists used to be in the minority on nuclear issues, and now theirs is the dominant view."

"The long-term pessimists will tell you the good old days were never that good," he said. "North Korea's program was up and running in the '80s, Iran's program was up and running in the '80s, India's was up in the '60s and people didn't see it because the relative dangers had diminished. We went from a Cold War world where life could end in 30 minutes to one where we had serious but isolated challenges. But now that the dangers of the Cold War really are in the history books, isolated dangers seem much more acute."

Today, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada and South Africa have begun or have expressed interest in enriching uranium to sell on the world market as nuclear power becomes more attractive to Third World countries. Iran has said repeatedly that its large-scale enrichment plans are designed solely for power generation. Uranium enriched to low levels, as the Iranians have done so far, can be used for fueling nuclear power plants, not for weapons. But the same process, if done at higher speeds for longer periods, can produce bomb-grade uranium. Egypt, Turkey and Algeria are all exploring nuclear power capabilities.

"In a way, it's a very bad time," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

"Egypt and Turkey are already pushing for nuclear power while thinking in the back of their minds they may want the option of a nuclear capability, and all the weapons states seem to be retrenching with their nuclear weapons. But I think it can be reversed. Nuclear weapons are a deterrence but also a bargaining chip."

George Perkovich, a vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the rise in proliferation threats can only be turned back once the United States, Russia and China figure out a power balance that makes room for each country's interests.

"The one thing we agreed on once with the Russians was that we didn't want any other countries getting nuclear weapons," Perkovich said. "But once you have a unipolar system, does Russia really have the same incentive when countries that are interested in getting nuclear weapons are also interested in limiting U.S. power? Russia and China feel wary of U.S. intentions now, in China's neighborhood and Russia's, so they aren't going to help us on nonproliferation just because it's the right thing to do."