Area's Exurbs Watched For Further Party Shifts

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, the Fairfax Republican for whom such geopolitical discussions are as interesting as sports fantasy leagues, draws the line short of Lang. "Fairfax and areas outside [the Beltway] will remain competitive," said Davis, who argues that recent voting patterns in Northern Virginia are more anti-Bush than anti-Republican.

But Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) won Davis's Fairfax-Prince William district last year, as well as the neighboring district represented by Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R). Kaine's victory there, in a district that stretches from McLean through Loudoun to the West Virginia line, was enough to persuade Democrat Judy Feder to launch a well-funded campaign that could be the toughest reelection battle of Wolf's 26-year congressional career.

Lang calls the Washington region "the Sunbelt of the Northeast," and he and colleague Thomas W. Sanchez note that Loudoun and Prince William are filling with people from all over the country drawn by job growth, not cheaper housing. In fact, incomes have soared in the area.

"This isn't part of the South, it isn't part of the North," Lang said. "It's part of generic, rich America, is what this is."

Even though Maryland is the more liberal state, the political trends there are more traditional: families moving from the urban core, a growing number of voters who find the Democratic Party moving too far to the left, distinct differences between urban and rural voters.

John Gibson, executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, said older rural Democrats and moderate blue-collar Democrats have more choices now.

"I think the Democratic Party in Maryland, especially in contrast with Virginia, has had such a stranglehold on the electorate for so long, people no longer see the party they grew up with," Gibson said. "Their party has moved so far to the left that at this point, the Republicans have a bigger tent."

It doesn't mean more Marylanders are becoming Republicans, however. More than 55 percent of registered voters in the state are Democrats, and 29 percent are Republicans, according to the most recent statewide figures. Those who don't sign up as either are the ones the GOP is actively courting.

Sen. Janet Greenip, a Republican who is finishing her first term representing southern Anne Arundel County, said she believes the political growth in her area has been among independents.

Most of them, she said, are Washington commuters who are seeking a more rural lifestyle, or military families moving near Fort Meade and the National Security Agency.

"Many of them are independent, but you see more conservative values," she said.

Southern Maryland is experiencing political crosscurrents as it undergoes dramatic demographic change, said Sen. Thomas M. Middleton (D), a Charles County politician for more than two decades.