The Web Era Isn't as New as You Think

But that is not the whole story. A Pew Internet survey also found that, during the 2004 presidential campaign, Internet users were more likely than non-users to be aware of differing political views, including on issues such as the merits of Kerry and President Bush, the war in Iraq, free trade and same-sex marriage. It seems that the Internet opens doors to all kinds of information, whether we agree with it or not.

The Internet brings new voters to the polls.

The jury is still out. Studies of the 2000 and 2004 elections suggest that people who obtain political news online are more likely to have voted than those who don't. But the causal arrow is more like a spinning weather vane here: It could be that politically active citizens are simply more likely to scour the Web for additional insight or ammunition.

Many factors affect the chance that a person will vote. Following the Bush-Kerry election in 2004, a Pew survey found that those with strong partisan identification were much more likely to have voted. Better educated people were more likely voters: The impact of a college degree on the chances someone will vote is twice as large as the impact of frequent political Internet use.

YouTube is the new "killer app" that will transform U.S. politics.

Each 24-month election cycle features a motherboard of new campaign devices, techniques and software applications, all generating a rush to judgment about their transformative effects.

This year's hot new function is YouTube. Now any candidate who nods off at hearings (Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana), runs away from questioners (Rep. Sue Kelly of New York), or comes up with unusual words with which to address opposition videographers (Sen. George Allen of Virginia) must continually monitor YouTube to see what citizen media-creators have wrought.

That said, post-election research probably will confirm the evidence from past campaigns. Online videos will have registered with some voters. Yet for most, the political news and information on television and in newspapers will have been more routinely part of their lives. It is also likely that the greatest impact of YouTube material will have come through its amplification by the parties and mainstream media.

Looking ahead, the Internet's role in politics will keep evolving as technology advances and users adapt it for new purposes. Someday, the iconic Internet president may emerge, dominating the medium like FDR on the radio and JFK and Ronald Reagan on television. But thus far, the most compelling narrative about the Internet and politics is not about candidates' skill with new media. Rather, it centers on activists' use of e-mail and Web sites; small donors' contributions online; bloggers' passion to debate issues; and amateur videographers' search for "gotcha" moments. Perhaps that is the best contribution this technology can make to democracy.

michael@electionmall.com

lee.rainie@gmail.com

Michael Cornfield is vice president of public affairs at Electionmall.com, a nonpartisan campaign technology company. Lee Rainie is director of the Pew Internet and American Life Project.