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It's Game Time
Another point in the argument that this contest may measure genuine insight rather than luck comes from looking at the years in which particular people won. The first winner, Richard Wirthlin, was the victor in 1982 -- precisely the time when he became a household name as President Ronald Reagan's pollster and strategist, and also when he had access to the most political intelligence. Political consultant Frank Luntz won in 1992, when he was first becoming a big deal in GOP circles. In general, winning the Crystal Ball contest tends to coincide with career ascendancy. Look at the 2004 runner-up: then-commentator Tony Snow, who is now the White House press secretary.
As much as it pains me to admit, these Crystal Ball winners may indeed know something I do not. The 2000 winner was Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. She studies this stuff all day long for a living. If she did not have some genuine insight, I would not let The Washington Post's political reporters quote her so often. Someone has to be in charge of setting the conventional wisdom, and we could do worse than Walter and the fellow winners on this list.
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The phrase "conventional wisdom "-- invoked with deep sarcasm, of course -- was coined by the economist John Kenneth Galbraith, who died earlier this year at age 97. On the brink of a fateful election, another thinker to keep in mind might be Galbraith's lifelong friend Arthur Schlesinger Jr., still very much alive at age 89. "The future is full of surprises and outwits all our certitudes," the historian wrote. "The inscrutability of history remains the salvation of human freedom and of human responsibility. The failure of prediction permits us to act as if our choices make a difference." We can celebrate our pundits' talent for prognostication, and the fact that even the best of them will more often than not get it wrong.
John F. Harris is The Washington Post's national political editor and coauthor of
"The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008" (Random House).
