By Zephyr Teachout and Tim Wu
Sunday, November 5, 2006; B01
Sen. John McCain made a brief appearance as himself in the 2005 Hollywood comedy "Wedding Crashers," a movie that online gossip Matt Drudge dubbed a "boob raunch fest." The Los Angeles Times opined that it was "perhaps not the most predictable showcase" for the Arizona Republican, and critics forecast a public-relations disaster. But McCain was just ahead of his time.
Far from backfiring, the cameo netted the senator some invaluable face time as he prepares for a 2008 presidential run. And imagine how many more millions will catch his performance as the movie replays on DVDs in U.S. homes over the next two years.
The senator said he did the movie "to impress my kids." But his decision displayed an understanding that the ways in which politicians reach voters are changing yet again. Political blogs got the ball rolling a few years ago, and this election is the season of YouTube, as campaign ads migrate to the popular online video site.
But there's more -- much more -- to come. As politicians scrounge for elusive voters in every corner of the land, they're likely to start using technology ever more inventively to help them in the search. And some of it, frankly, may not be pretty.
Political placement.
With fewer viewers watching campaign ads on TV -- thanks to Tivo, iTunes and Netflix -- politicians will soon have no choice but to place themselves and their messages directly into popular shows, movies and video games. There'll be more McCain-style political cameos, as well as campaign ads on buses or buildings in the background of popular shows.
After that? Maybe political parties will fund shows that send their message. Think: " 'Grey's Anatomy.' Brought to You by the Democratic Party. We Put Health Care First." In time, the fictional characters themselves may be delivering the political messages. "You know," Sawyer of ABC's "Lost" might say, "Congress really should give Verizon a national cable franchise."
Corporate data meet political data.
What took political candidates so long to figure out that electronic data is power? Harrah's Casino had the e-mail addresses of 28 million Americans in 2005, far outstripping the databanks of both political parties. But, led by the Republicans, the parties have finally caught on to the wonders of corporate data and microtargeting, and they'll only get better at it.
As the saying goes, you can't please all of the people all of the time, but great data-mining sure helps. If a guy like former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani knows that you're a libertarian (thanks to your subscription to Reason magazine and your support for legalizing marijuana), his campaign can stress tolerance for gays and abortion rights. But if the data detect that you own a Hummer, out comes the 9/11 package. The politicians of the future -- Giuliani, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and others -- will be basing their voter pitches first and foremost on likability. Better data-mining will help make sure you like them, whatever your politics.
With better corporate data, instead of "Swing-vote Soccer Moms," data managers will be examining the persuasion habits of "Abercrombie & Fitch Republicans," and the particular unreliability of "Shrek Democrats." Most useful of all: detailed reports about the moods, smells and sounds most likely to make disaffected independents get out and vote.
'Second Life' politics.
When former Virginia governor Mark Warner showed up this year in the online virtual world "Second Life" to talk to voters before he abandoned a presidential bid, the event was overlooked by everybody but geek blog BoingBoing.net. Too bad. Places like "Second Life," with its 1 million "residents," and World of Warcraft, a massive online role-playing game, are regularly outdrawing networks such as CNN and Fox. In time, virtual campaigning will be an essential part of any successful campaign, and "gaming outreach coordinators" may be a hot commodity for the 2008 candidates.
It's easy to imagine a 2008 primary season in which politicians begin raising armies of followers on World of Warcraft and Ultima Online. The first candidate who does so may be mocked -- until her opponent's supporters notice thousands of political warlocks, chanting slogans, infiltrating banquets and chat rooms. Just imagine the battle of Helm's Deep from "The Lord of the Rings" with Democrats and Republicans instead of Orcs and Elves.
A virtual campaign would be more fun and more inclusive. It could include a violent rally -- complete with tire-burning, stone-throwing and maybe blowing up of opponents -- with no one getting hurt. If you think we're polarized and partisan today, just wait. In the fantasy worlds of the Internet, real political participation can mean more than just holding a sign. It can mean boiling your opponents in oil and firing catapults: Medieval mudslinging meets Lee Atwater.
A new kind of dirty campaign.
In politics, yesterday's taboo is today's mainstream practice. In the 18th century, it was considered undignified for a candidate to leave his home to campaign. When Bill Clinton appeared on "The Arsenio Hall Show" in 1992, it was daring and new. Ditto for Howard Dean's first blog.
So we have to wonder: Who will be the first politician to quietly start using Internet gambling and pornography sites to reach voters? Sure, the initial reaction may be sharp and nasty, but the need to reach people where they are may overcome public embarrassment. These sites may also be one of the few ways to reach a crucial demographic: the politically disaffected male voter, age 30 to 49. Today, about a quarter of all online searches are for porn -- and campaign dollars may one day follow.
Total accountability software.
Nowadays, cars can tell us when problems are beginning to develop -- some even tell us when they've been stolen. Hard drives report damage, and investment accounts happily tell us how they've been doing. We all think we're too busy, which is why performance-monitoring technologies are so popular.
People are already training this technology on another of our supposed servants -- our elected representatives. Like wayward pets, politicians can wander pretty far from what they say they're going to do. Hence the need for "Political Accountability Software" -- complete solutions for keeping track of your representative.
In the same format that you may use to check your stocks, you can check out where your legislator is spending time (thanks to GPS) and whom he's meeting. Advanced accounting software will keep a running tally of how much Ms. Senator has brought home to the state, how much she has raised and lowered your taxes, and where contributions have been coming from. A sophisticated text-analysis engine can detect direct lies and erratic voting behavior -- sending you the kind of alert message you receive if your checks bounce.
Political affinity zones.
"This is a four-bar blue zone," you say, consulting your BlackBerry in an unknown part of Pittsburgh. "Democrats everywhere." Mobile devices are getting better not just at making phone calls, but at telling us about the world around us. Mobile social software such as "Dodgeball" is supposed to let you know if your friends are nearby, and can help you find the closest place for good Chinese dumplings. In time, it may also tell you what kind of political air you are breathing.
"Mobile political affinity" software would measure local political demographics. Subscribers would continually and anonymously transmit their political preferences. That's how you would know that 61 percent of the people in your cafe disapprove of the war in Iraq. More sophisticated software would let you find out whether you are in a gay-friendly area, or a conservative Christian area -- a virtual political and cultural weather map.
Political affinity software would take the guesswork out of finding your political community. And, of course, parties and politicians would become interested in the possibilities for even more sophisticated ways to redraw districts. The slogan: "If only I'd figured out e-gerrymandering when I was younger, I'd still be a congressman today."
If you're a stickler for dignity in politics, the future we've described may not be for you. But boring old blogs, knocking on doors and, yes, campaign speeches aren't going away, either. So the choice will be up to the voters: Do you prefer to watch Hillary's televised debate with Barack, or their online duel with giant battleaxes?
Zephyr Teachout was director of Internet organizing for Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign. Tim Wu is a professor at Columbia Law School and coauthor of "Who Controls the Internet?" (Oxford University Press).
