Anxious GOP Focuses on Not Losing Senate

In Virginia, some handicappers feel that Webb, the Democratic challenger, has a small advantage over Allen, whose campaign has suffered from several gaffes. "If George Allen hasn't closed the sale yet," Rothenberg said, "it's going to be hard for him to do it."

Republicans feel somewhat better about Tennessee, where Corker, the former Chattanooga mayor, is battling Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) for an open seat. Corker has a slim edge in some polls, Rothenberg said, and his non-incumbent status could help him survive public displeasure with Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress.

Republicans said it is too early to count out Sens. Lincoln D. Chafee of Rhode Island and Conrad Burns of Montana, who have trailed by small margins in most polls. Furthermore, Michigan's depressed economy and allegations of Democratic corruption in New Jersey conceivably could topple Democratic incumbents in those states, said Brian Nick, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. And unpredictable votes by African Americans could undo predictions in Maryland, he said, where GOP nominee Michael S. Steele, who is black, is running against Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin (D), who is white.

Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in an interview: "We're feeling pretty good -- and nervous. It's going to be real close."

For House Republicans, the political terrain appears to be eroding beneath their feet, several analysts said. GOP seats that only a week ago seemed to be solidifying -- such as those held by Reps. Charles Bass in New Hampshire, Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania, John E. Sweeney in New York, Jim Ryun in Kansas, J.D. Hayworth in Arizona and Richard W. Pombo in California -- are turning very soft.

"The bottom just fell out," said Amy Walter, a House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Her publication predicted yesterday that Republicans will lose 20 to 35 seats. Rothenberg predicted a 34-to-40-seat Democratic gain. "The House is gone," he said.

In various places, voters complained yesterday about a deluge of automated phone calls from candidates and party committees, generating at least two Federal Election Commission complaints from Democratic voters in Connecticut and Pennsylvania. Some voters reported receiving up to seven calls per day, including calls in the middle of the night.

Staff writers Peter Baker, Michael A. Fletcher and Shailagh Murray contributed to this report.