Democrats Appear Set for Election Gains

Rep. Don Sherwood, R-Pa., attends a rally Lewisburg, Pa., Friday, Nov. 3, 2006, for Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. Sherwood is running against challenger Chris Carney. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) (Carolyn Kaster - AP)

He said dissatisfaction was evident with the Republican job performance among all parts of the GOP coalition, social conservatives, economic conservatives and foreign policy conservatives.

Democrats shunned ebullient predictions, recalling false optimism of previous elections. But several strategists said this time was different. In the past, "we were trying to contrive a message of change, and so we would lose. This time, the political environment held from January through November," said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster advising Sheldon Whitehouse, favored to win a Senate race in Rhode Island, as well as numerous House contenders in close races.

"I've said all along there's going to be three dozen very hotly contested seats," said Rep. Tom Reynolds, R-N.Y., chairman of the House campaign committee, who noted that he has said for months that Republicans have campaigned all year with "the wind in our face."

Based on polling and the record sums the House GOP committee and its Democratic counterpart have spent on advertising, the list of competitive races far exceeds three dozen.

A string of states stretching from Connecticut through New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky holds roughly 20 competitive races. All were in Republican hands, a blend of open seats and incumbents in trouble. Reynolds as well as Rep. Deborah Pryce of Ohio, also a member of the leadership, were among them.

Seats held by Republican Reps. Michael Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach and Don Sherwood in eastern Pennsylvania were so fiercely fought that the two party committees spent more than $18 million combined to prevail.

Rep. Heather Wilson is in her usual tight race for a new term in New Mexico, but other Republicans, such as Rep. Charles Bass of New Hampshire, Jim Walsh of New York and Steve Chabot of Ohio are struggling for the first time in years.

Democrats also sensed late opportunity to pick up House seats in Kansas, Colorado and even Nebraska, and Bush arranged his late campaign itinerary to be in all three states.

Three days before the ballots are cast, Republicans all but conceded six seats or more are lost to the Democrats.

Incumbents all but given up for lost included Rep. John Hostettler of Indiana, first elected in the GOP sweep of a dozen years ago, and Weldon in Pennsylvania, ensnared in a federal corruption investigation. Republicans also signaled they did not expect to hold open seats in Colorado, Iowa, Arizona and New York, where incumbents either retired or left the House to seek statewide office.

By contrast, the list of Democrats who appeared in electoral jeopardy to GOP challengers was short _ Reps. Jim Marshall and John Barrow in Georgia. Both are in districts that were redrawn by the Republican legislature to make them more hospitable to the GOP.

Rep. William Jefferson of Louisiana, at the center of a federal bribery investigation, appears headed for a December runoff. But his closest rival in a crowded field, Karen Carter, is also a Democrat, and the seat appears safely in the party's hands.