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ALASKA: Alternatives to the Status Quo

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Sunday, November 5, 2006

In one of the more stunning rebukes this year, Republican primary voters denied Gov. Frank Murkowski the chance to serve a second term. Murkowski, who served in the Senate before returning home four years ago as governor, finished third in the August primary.

The winner was Sarah Palin, the former mayor of Wasilla. Given the Republican leanings of the state, Palin's victory gave GOP officials hope that they could retain the governor's office, and initial polls showed her with a wide lead over former governor Tony Knowles (D). But Knowles has bounced back, aided by support from the business community. Palin remains a narrow favorite.

CALIFORNIA: A Tough Governor to Unseat

Though he looked like a 97-pound weakling a year ago, after voters rejected all four of his initiatives in a special election he had called, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has regained his title as the toughest guy in California politics, as he heads for a big victory over state Treasurer Phil Angelides (D), who has not been able to mobilize his party after a divisive primary. Schwarzenegger, who rebuilt his reputation by conciliating the Democratic legislature while Bush White House veterans took over and ran a textbook campaign, is likely to have a new mandate to challenge -- or work with -- the legislature.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) has had only a token challenge from former state senator Richard Mountjoy (R), her little-known opponent.

The key House race pits House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo (R) against engineer Jerry McNerney (D). Pombo defeated McNerney handily in 2004, but environmental organizations have come after the incumbent hard this year, and it's a horse race.

There are substantial but less-threatening challenges to Rep. John Doolittle (R) from Air Force veteran Charlie Brown (D) and to Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) from his old rival, educator Francine Busby (D). The seat of retiring House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas (R) is ticketed for his protege, state assembly Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, over educator Sharon Beery (D).

HAWAII: Three Races Locked Up

Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka and Republican Gov. Linda Lingle are in no trouble in their reelection campaigns. Rep. Ed Case (D) tried to unseat the 82-year-old Akaka in the primary but failed. Case's solidly Democratic 2nd District seat will probably go to former lieutenant governor Mazie Hirono (D).

OREGON: Credible Republican Challenger

Democrats have taken a strong lead in early applications for ballots in the mail-in election, raising their hopes that Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) can withstand the credible challenge of Portland lawyer Ron Saxton (R) and win a second term.

Kulongoski had a tough first four years, feuding with the legislature and with labor, but late polls show him seven points or more ahead.

WASHINGTON: Dwindling Chance for GOP

It looked for many months as if Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell's seat would be a top opportunity for the GOP to pick up a Senate spot. With a tiny margin of victory the last time around, she also seemed headed for a brutal primary against antiwar challengers.

But she brought those challengers into her campaign and appears on track to defeat Mike McGavick (R), a former insurance-company executive who has spent $2.5 million on the race.

McGavick has suffered for a campaign strategy that involved disclosing a drunken-driving arrest and other personal foibles.

In the 8th District, in Seattle's suburbs, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is trying to fend off a challenge from former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D). Burner, who has no legislative record, has tried to tie Reichert to President Bush, an unpopular figure in this Democratic-leaning district.

But Reichert, popular in the district, has stressed his independence, and he appears to have a slight lead in the final days.

WASHINGTON: Dwindling Chance for GOP

It looked for many months as if Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell's seat would be a top opportunity for the GOP to pick up a Senate spot. With a tiny margin of victory the last time around, she also seemed headed for a brutal primary against antiwar challengers.

But she brought those challengers into her campaign and appears on track to defeat Mike McGavick (R), a former insurance-company executive who has spent $2.5 million on the race.

McGavick has suffered for a campaign strategy that involved disclosing a drunken-driving arrest and other personal foibles.

In the 8th District, in Seattle's suburbs, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is trying to fend off a challenge from former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D). Burner, who has no legislative record, has tried to tie Reichert to President Bush, an unpopular figure in this Democratic-leaning district.

But Reichert, popular in the district, has stressed his independence, and he appears to have a slight lead in the final days.



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