ARIZONA: Conservative Fights for His Seat

Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), a rising star as the first female chair of the National Governors Association, is cruising to a second term over conservative think tank president Len Munsil (R).

Sen. Jon Kyl (R) has faced a stiffer challenge from developer and former state Democratic Party chairman Jim Pederson, who has sunk millions into his race and has been bolstered by late funds from the national party. But with heavy emphasis on measures against illegal immigration and support for Bush on Iraq, Kyl seems to have fended off Pederson and secured a third term.

The seat of retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe, a Republican moderate, is likely to switch to the Democrats. In a battle of two former legislators, Gabrielle Giffords (D) is leading Randy Graf, the Club for Growth conservative who won the GOP nomination when two moderates split most of the primary votes but whose stands were extreme enough to cost him Kolbe's support.

After six terms, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is fighting for his political life after losing the endorsement of the Arizona Republic, which called him a "bully" for his aggressive advocacy of conservative positions. His opponent, legislator and former state Democratic Party chairman Harry Mitchell, is the strongest Democrat to test Hayworth in this Republican-leaning district.

Rep. Rick Renzi (R) has been hit with conflict-of-interest investigations by the Justice Department in a land deal that netted a partner $3 million, but he appears to be leading lawyer Ellen Simon (D) in a huge rural district where it is difficult for a newcomer to campaign.

NEW MEXICO: Republicans Grow Confident

A close race is nothing new to Rep. Heather Wilson (R). Since winning a 1998 special election in her Albuquerque area district, she has been at or near the top of Democrats' target list in each subsequent election. They have recruited their strongest candidate against Wilson yet, state Attorney General Patricia Madrid, and the contest has been tied for months. Of late, the GOP is more confident that Wilson will eke out another narrow win.

Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is set to win a second term easily over former state GOP chairman John Dendahl. Richardson will probably pivot early next year to a run for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

OKLAHOMA: Solid Hold on Governorship

Gov. Brad Henry (D) is heavily favored for a second term over Rep. Ernest Istook (R), his conservative challenger. Istook's seat is likely to go to 12-year veteran Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) over surgeon David Hunter (D).

TEXAS: A GOP Comeback for DeLay's Seat?

When House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) resigned from Congress this year and courts ruled that the GOP could not put another candidate's name on the ballot, former representative Nick Lampson (D) appeared to have a free ride to Congress from the 22nd District. But the fortunes of a GOP-backed write-in candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, have been rising in this heavily Republican district.

National Republicans have been spending heavily to offset Lampson's huge fundraising lead, and Sekula-Gibbs's campaign was boosted in the final stretch by a visit to Sugar Land by Bush. Still, her campaign is hampered by the difficulty voters might have in inputting her name on electronic voting machines.

In the 17th District, Rep. Chet Edwards (D) appears likely to repel a challenge from Iraq war veteran Van Taylor (R). Similarly, in the redrawn 23rd District, in San Antonio's suburbs, Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) has an edge in a close contest with former representative Ciro Rodriguez (D). But there are several other candidates, and Bonilla needs at least 50 percent to avoid a runoff.

Gov. Rick Perry (R) is likely to stay in office for a second full term in a campaign that has featured some of the most colorful characters in recent history. His chief Democratic opponent is former representative Chris Bell, but getting more attention have been independent candidates Kinky Friedman, an author and musician, and state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who wanted to be called "Grandma" on the ballot.

There is little doubt that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will defeat a token Democratic opponent, lawyer Barbara Ann Radnofsky.

TEXAS: A GOP Comeback for DeLay's Seat?

When House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) resigned from Congress this year and courts ruled that the GOP could not put another candidate's name on the ballot, former representative Nick Lampson (D) appeared to have a free ride to Congress from the 22nd District. But the fortunes of a GOP-backed write-in candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, have been rising in this heavily Republican district.

National Republicans have been spending heavily to offset Lampson's huge fundraising lead, and Sekula-Gibbs's campaign was boosted in the final stretch by a visit to Sugar Land by Bush. Still, her campaign is hampered by the difficulty voters might have in inputting her name on electronic voting machines.

In the 17th District, Rep. Chet Edwards (D) appears likely to repel a challenge from Iraq war veteran Van Taylor (R). Similarly, in the redrawn 23rd District, in San Antonio's suburbs, Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) has an edge in a close contest with former representative Ciro Rodriguez (D). But there are several other candidates, and Bonilla needs at least 50 percent to avoid a runoff.

Gov. Rick Perry (R) is likely to stay in office for a second full term in a campaign that has featured some of the most colorful characters in recent history. His chief Democratic opponent is former representative Chris Bell, but getting more attention have been independent candidates Kinky Friedman, an author and musician, and state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who wanted to be called "Grandma" on the ballot.

There is little doubt that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will defeat a token Democratic opponent, lawyer Barbara Ann Radnofsky.