COLORADO: Chances for Democratic Gains

Two-term Gov. Bill Owens (R) is term-limited, and Democrat Bill Ritter is running well ahead of Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) in the race to succeed him. Beauprez originally looked like the stronger of the two candidates, but he got badly bruised in an early intraparty conflict and never recovered. Ritter, a former Denver district attorney and an abortion opponent, is benefiting as the state goes from red to purple.

Beauprez's 7th District seat in the Denver suburbs is likely to go to the Democrats, with Ed Perlmutter now leading Rick O'Donnell (R). Democrats pounded O'Donnell for having written years ago that Social Security should be abolished. He recanted, but the damage was done.

Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) narrowly won the 4th District in 2004 and is in a tossup race against Democrat Angie Paccione this year. A Democratic group spent more than $500,000 against Musgrave, forcing national Republicans to come to her defense. President Bush came in yesterday to help her. National Democrats launched ads late Friday.

In the 5th District, Republican Doug Lamborn won a nasty primary but ruptured relations with retiring Rep. Joel Hefley (R), putting himself in jeopardy against former Air Force officer Jay Fawcett (D). But the district is heavily Republican.

IDAHO: A Surprising Showing by Democrats

Idaho is usually strongly Republican, but this year is so competitive that Vice President Cheney made a rescue visit on Thursday. The governorship, held by a seat-warmer since Dirk Kempthorne (R) became secretary of interior, was supposed to go to Rep. Butch Otter (R), who had been lieutenant governor for many years. But Otter dawdled and allowed newspaper publisher Jerry Brady (D), who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002, to catch him in the polls. Now that the GOP is mobilized by the threat, Otter may be winning it.

State Rep. Bill Sali (R), the Club for Growth candidate, won a six-way primary for Otter's seat with 26 percent of the vote and has struggled ever since. Sali's opponent, Boise business executive Larry Grant (D), has run ads filled with quotes from GOP leaders denouncing Sali for his actions in the legislature. With Boise's growth drawing in more Democrats, this race could be close.

MONTANA: Tough Race, but GOP Sees Hope

Sen. Conrad Burns (R) has been running uphill all year, but Republicans suddenly think this could be a bright spot for them on Tuesday.

Burns was dogged early by connections to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and dug himself deeper into a hole with a series of verbal gaffes. His opponent, state Senate President Jon Tester (D), is of the same mold as Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer and for most of October had a narrow but clear lead. But Republicans have pounded Tester on taxes, and the party is counting on late visits by Bush and Cheney to produce a big GOP turnout. Democrats say their get-out-the-vote operation is very strong. This is a tossup.

NEVADA: Scandal Makes Race Competitive

Rep. Jim Gibbons's (R) gubernatorial campaign appeared to be on cruise control until late last month, when allegations of inappropriate behavior with a woman in Las Vegas surfaced. Gibbons has denied any wrongdoing, but the damage is done. His race with state Sen. Dina Titus is now a jump ball, with Republicans acknowledging that the trend line does not look good.

In the 2nd District, which Gibbons is leaving, Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) faces a surprisingly strong challenge from University of Nevada Regent Jill Derby (D). Democrats were more optimistic about Derby's chances a week or so ago and say the district's strong Republican bent makes this a long shot.

The 3rd District, which takes in much of Las Vegas's fast-growing suburbs, could be very competitive; Bush won it 50 percent to 49 percent in 2004. But Rep. Jon Porter (R) won easily two years ago. Tessa Hafen (D), a former aide for Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, has run a credible campaign but probably needs a strong national wind to end up ahead.

Sen. John Ensign (R) is heavily favored for a second term as Jack Carter (D), son of former president Jimmy Carter, has run a less-than-stellar campaign.

UTAH: Solid Incumbents for Senate, House

Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, a 30-year political veteran, is assured of a win against business executive Pete Ashdown (D). Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is having a relatively easy time against state Rep. LaVar Christensen (R).

WYOMING: A Gaffe? Still Favored to Win

Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from school-board commissioner Gary Trauner (D) but is likely to pull out a win because Wyoming is heavily Republican. Her campaign was not helped when she told a third-party candidate who uses a wheelchair, "If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face." She said the quote is inaccurate, but she apologized.

Sen. Craig Thomas (R) is expected to cruise to victory over retired Navy mechanical engineer Dale Groutage (D), as is Gov. Dave Freudenthal (R) over lawyer and 2002 challenger Ray Hunkins (D).

WYOMING: A Gaffe? Still Favored to Win

Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from school-board commissioner Gary Trauner (D) but is likely to pull out a win because Wyoming is heavily Republican. Her campaign was not helped when she told a third-party candidate who uses a wheelchair, "If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face." She said the quote is inaccurate, but she apologized.

Sen. Craig Thomas (R) is expected to cruise to victory over retired Navy mechanical engineer Dale Groutage (D), as is Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) over lawyer and 2002 challenger Ray Hunkins (R).